A warming cold war

Geo-political developments, including armed conflicts reported in the main and social media points to increasing hostilities, that may led to bigger wars or a World War III. Presumably, political leaders of the contending countries are aware of the disastrous consequences of the current cold war and the potential WWIII, that there are flurries of communication and peace initiatives. However, the more aggressive actions by Russia, China, and North Korea and the active defensive activities of the European Union, US, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are escalating tensions that may lead to a nuclear war.

The “Doomsday Clock”, which projects how close the world is to a nuclear war that will wipe out 90% of the global population, was created in 1947 by atomic scientists, including Einstein and those who worked on nuclear weapons in WWII. The clock is set minutes to midnight with each minute representing a year to total annihilation. It was set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947 and is updated every year. The clock was farthest at 17 minutes to midnight in 1991, when the cold war ended and the US States and Soviet Union signed a treaty reducing their nuclear arsenal. Since then many countries have developed nuclear weapons and geo-political warfare and ongoing conflicts have increased. In January 2023, the Doomsday Clock was set at 1 minute and 30 seconds to midnight.

The recent setting of the Doomsday Clock took into consideration the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China’s expansion into Asian territories, North Korea’s missile tests, and some sporadic wars. With the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war and stationing of nuclear weapons in Belarus by Russia, the provocative aerial and naval maneuvers of China against the West, and the launching of inter-continental ballistic missiles by North Korea, the scientists are about to reset the Doomsday Clock even before year’s end, to forewarn world leaders that we’re nearing a nuclear WWIII. The ongoing developments in the new cold war add to this prognosis, like Australia acquiring nuclear submarines, China’s spy stations in Cuba, Europe, and in the US, EU banning communication technologies from China, China’s further incursion in the Pacific and provocative incursions in Taiwan’s waters. It’s looking like the world is one minute to midnight in the Doomsday Clock, or we are one year away from kissing our asses goodbye.

I asked ChatGPT how far the world is from a nuclear war and got this answer. “As an AI language model, I do not have access to classified information, nor can I predict the future. However, I can assure you that maintaining global peace and avoiding nuclear war is top priority for international leaders, and diplomatic efforts are ongoing to prevent such a catastrophic situation from occurring. It is important to foster cooperation and dialogue between nations promote mutual understanding and avoid conflict.” This is a diplomatic answer without commitment which we hope will happen.

However, there is something people can do to prevent a nuclear WWIII. The biggest wars in history including WWI and WWII were actually decided by a few thousand political leaders and it killed millions of people. The current wars and geo-political tensions are initiated by the politburos of Russia, China, and North Korea which are dominated by their leaders. On the other side, the defensive moves of the Western Alliance are calculated by parliaments and congresses of democratic countries. Technically, a nuclear WWIII would be decided by less than 10,000 politicians, a lot of them incompetent, including some crazies. The way to stop a war is for the majority of the people to be heard and for their leaders to listen and implement the people’s will. Sixty percent of the world population is middle class and can influence their governments, easier in democratic countries and harder in autocratic countries, but when push comes to shove, governments will heed the people’s will. People Power will save the world from a nuclear WWIII.