Surveys, surveys

Surveys, political or otherwise, have become a vital part of modern life, born of the need to be in the know, to be appraised and be guided in the decisions we make. That surveys can be tailored or manipulated does not significantly diminish their credibility nor their capacity to be attractive to those willing to test their thoughts against those of others.

It is no wonder then that in a country as politically fired up as ours, the business of taking political surveys is as frequent as it is lucrative. And so it is, that very recently the first few of what will be many political surveys for the next two electoral runs have been made and the results released. And as always, the excitement rises as a consequence.

One survey, by pollster Social Weather Stations, was about presidential preferences of people for faraway 2028. And it did not really come as a surprise to many that Vice President Sara would be topping the poll in runaway fashion. Neither did it come as a surprise that such preference would remain consistent with similar surveys taken even before 2022.

What this consistency suggests to me is that there is a large segment of the Philippine population that has been captivated by the Duterte brand of leadership and governance, a brand that is marked by both raw strength and irresistible charm, an incongruous mix difficult to find in most people but which strangely seem to wrap the Duterte line.

Whether openly or secretly, people loved the father, Rodrigo Duterte, in all facets of his personality --the tough talk, the green unrefined humor, the raw wit, the gentle commonness, the down-to-earth relations. It is no wonder he remained popular to the end of his term. It is no wonder, too, that a lot of it rubbed off on Sara, who inherited most or all of it.

To a certain extent, it surprised no one either that another tough talker, Senator Raffy Tulfo, would place second to Sara in the same survey. Tulfo validates the preference for toughness people have for the Duterte brand. He placed a far second because all tough talk and no charm or humility makes one useful but not loveable.

Even farther down at third is Leni Robredo, whose placement can be traced to the residual support of those who never accepted the reality that there is now a new political order in the Philippines. This new order is in fact reinforced by the fact that right after her is Rodrigo Duterte himself, even if he can run no longer for president.

Other names that rounded out the top 10 are Manny Pacquiao, Robin Padilla, Isko Moreno, and reinforcing yet further the new order, Bongbong Marcos (who also cannot be president again), Imee Marcos, and Sandro Marcos. Curiously but not surprisingly, Martin Romualdez never made it into the picture.

To complete the picture, SWS similarly did two surveys for senatorial preferences, an aided survey in which respondents were provided names, and an unaided one in which respondents were left alone to name their choices. In the aided survey, another Tulfo, Erwin, and Rodrigo Duterte topped the list of 100 names provided.

In the unaided poll, top of mind among respondents was Pacquiao. All of these surveys are very early but they nevertheless provide a glimpse of sentiment. They can help shape crucial decisions that will have to be made later. What is clear even this early is that the new order is in and the old order is out. That is the truth that weighs heavy upon all.