Counteroffensive

May 9 is Russia’s most important holiday, commemorating the nation’s costly victory over the Nazis at the end of the Second World War. Vladimir Putin had hoped his forces might completely capture the devastated Ukrainian city of Bakhmut to give his people reason to celebrate.

Instead, a sharp Ukrainian counterattack sent Russia’s elite 72nd airborne brigade into disorganized retreat on the western side of the embattled city, taking casualties running into the hundreds. We first learned of the debacle from Yevgeny Prigozhin, the oligarch responsible for financing the dreaded Wagner mercenary group.

In an unprecedented social media rant, Prigozhin accused the Russian brigade of breaking and running away under Ukrainian pressure, leaving his flank exposed and vulnerable to encirclement. He spoke with rows of his dead fighters serving as a morbid backdrop.

The oligarch was loudly demanding for more weapons and ammunition from the Russian army. In the face of it, that demand seems paradoxical. The mercenary group is not even supposed to exist. Russian law criminalizes the establishment of private armed groups. Notwithstanding, the Wagner group has been supplied by the Kremlin and allowed to recruit from the country’s prisons on the promise of clemency and a pension if they survive.

Desperate for arms, Prigozhin had threatened the pull out his remaining fighters from Bakhmut by May 10. A Chechen brigade and another paramilitary unit prepared to replace the Wagner group. But Prigozhin did not carry out his threat, however, despite little evidence he received the arms he demanded from the Russian military establishment.

The oligarch nevertheless continued on with his rant on social media, criticizing the Russian top brass of undermining his force. As Putin’s private army of sorts, this unseemly oligarch is useful to the Russian leader as a counterweight to the military establishment. But he could be pushing his luck as the situation in occupied Ukraine deteriorates.

While leaders of Russia’s military and the paramilitary units carry out their public squabbling, Ukraine has been preparing for a major counteroffensive. During the winter months, Ukraine has built up several new brigades armed with the most modern weapons the western powers could provide. The latest weapons delivery are a cache of “Storm Shadow” cruise missiles from the UK. This is a powerful and precise weapon that has been described as a game-changer.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine February last year, its military forces have been thwarted dramatically. This military misadventure underscores the weaknesses of Russia’s army. It is an army reliant on obsolete weaponry and worn-out battlefield tactics. It has a substandard logistics capacity that left frontline units short of weapons, fuel and food. Its commanders have poor multi-arms capabilities. Its awesome missile force could not be precisely targeted.

In a word, Russia’s army is large but it is from the last century. Russian commanders leading the invasion force never appreciated the importance of drone warfare until entire tank columns were obliterated. Moscow had to hurriedly purchase drones from Iran.

After it was pushed back from hundreds of kilometers of occupied territory last September, the Russian invasion force was forced into an extremely defensive posture. They spent the winter digging trenches and building tank traps to defend against a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Superior air defense systems supplied by the NATO prevented the mighty Russian air force from freely marauding in Ukrainian air space. The Russians expended thousands of their missiles attacking civilian targets with imprecise targeting.

Kiev has been tight-lipped about when it might launch a counteroffensive against an exhausted Russia force. Prigozhin says the counteroffensive has begun, with sharply conceived attacks meant to “shape” the battlefield. Ukrainian leader Zelensky says the counteroffensive might have to wait for better ground conditions to minimize losses among his forces.

Everyone, it seems, expects the Ukrainians to mount some sort of blitzkrieg, sweeping across Russian lines on their weakest points and attacking the enemy from the rear. That might not be how this counteroffensive will happen. Ukraine, after all, survived this long by being more creative in strategy and tactics.

It will work better for Kiev to economize on their forces, mounting a series of small but bold counterattacks aimed at crippling Russia’s already vulnerable logistics structure. By doing so, Ukrainian forces could undermine Russia’s capacity for warfare and demoralize the Russian frontline even more.

Over the past weeks, several saboteur operations have been mounted on Russian railways and fuel depots. Recall that a few months back, Ukraine recovered its important southern city of Kherson without having to resort to street-to-street fighting. The Ukrainians simply rendered Russian army positions indefensible.

Ukraine has received a few dozen state-of-the-art main battle tanks from NATO. Meanwhile, Russia has been pulling WWII-vintage tanks from long storage to replace the armor they lost over the past year. So technically advanced are Ukraine’s new tanks each of them could wipe out a regiment of Russia’s ancient war vehicles. But Ukraine is not about to gamble her tanks needlessly in running battles. The mere presence of modern tanks close to the frontline sufficiently terrifies the Russians.

The biggest factor in the war is fighting spirit. Russia initiated an unjust war. Ukraine is fighting a patriotic war. Global opinion has firmed up on who better deserves to win.

This extremely destructive war might not end this year. But for the length of fighting that remains, it now seems clear Ukraine will keep the initiative and Russia will continue manufacturing justifications for why its forces invaded.

Everyone expects democracy to win this round.