Falling birth rate

Maybe the reproductive health program is working. Maybe more women are putting career ahead of childbearing, or prefer to serve as their birth family’s main breadwinner (many overseas workers are) before starting their own family.

Or perhaps a combination of all these elements has led to a slowdown in Philippine population growth.

Lisa Grace Bersales, executive director of the Commission on Population, says from 2.7 children per woman aged 15 to 49 in 2017, the national fertility rate is down to 1.9 as of 2022 (the figure is 2.2 in rural areas and 1.7 in urban centers) – already below the replacement level for two parents.

Teenage pregnancies are also down from 8.6 percent in 2017 to 5.4 percent last year, according to a survey conducted by the Philippine Statistics Authority. That 5.4 percent, however, still means 5,531 women aged 15 to 19 who have been pregnant. Bersales, former PSA chief, also expressed concern over increasing numbers of girls as young as 10 getting pregnant.

PSA data showed that between 2016 and 2021, births among girls aged 10 to 14 rose by 11 percent, or 2,299 such births in 2021.

The United Nations Population Fund estimates that 10 percent of births in the Philippines are from mothers under age 19. The agency places the economic losses from teenage pregnancies at P33 billion a year.

A bill filed in Congress seeks to allow minor girls to access reproductive health services even without parents’ consent. Minors who get pregnant, after all, are already mothers.

Bersales is pushing for a stronger implementation of comprehensive sexuality education, which teaches not only the anatomical aspects of physical intimacy and reproductive health but also the economic and social impacts of pregnancy.

The population growth rate was at 1.6 percent nationwide as of end-2021 and an even lower 1.2 percent in Metro Manila, the country’s most densely populated region with the highest concentration of the poorest of the poor. The average Filipino family size has shrunk from five to four.

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Bersales attributes these developments in large part to access to reproductive health services. Even if there are so many impoverished communities in the National Capital Region, she points out that local government units in the NCR are among the wealthiest in the country and can provide free RH services to poor constituents.

She notes that the population growth rate remains high in underdeveloped communities in remote areas that are not easily reached by LGU services.

There is also the shift in the way Filipinos perceive the role of the family in their lives. While raising a family is still important for Filipinos, women are increasingly putting emphasis on their career and the impact of childbearing on professional advancement. Childbirth is being put off or else spaced farther apart.

Raising children is easier in societies such as ours where households are typically multigenerational, with grandparents, aunts and other relatives on hand to watch young kids while parents work. Nannies are also available for those who can afford it. Such set-ups have allowed Filipino women to work overseas, leaving their children in the care of relatives.

Younger generations, however, are increasingly opting for nuclear families – if they choose to get married or raise a family at all – and eschewing house helpers. I know even wealthy couples who don’t want to have kasambahay, opting to just hire people to come in during weekends to clean the house and do the laundry.

With young people no longer having children or even getting married, the decline in birth rate is expected to continue.

Meanwhile, advances in medicine and improved health care are allowing people to live longer, even in low-income communities where much of the health care is state-subsidized.

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A combination of falling birth rate and a growing elderly population can lead to a situation where there aren’t enough younger people paying taxes and other fees that are needed for national expenditures, including state subsidies as well as an ever-expanding funding requirement for retiree pensions and benefits.

Bersales believes it will take many years before the  Philippines faces the prospect of an aging population, which has become a problem for high-income economies such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea.

Even with the nationwide fertility rate slowing to 1.9, that’s still about two children per couple, which means the country remains in a demographic sweet spot, Bersales says.

As of last Saturday, the Worldometer elaboration of United Nations data placed the Philippine population at over 113.7 million, while the World Population Review projected the number at 117.3 million by July 1 this year.

There are still enough young Filipinos to meet the nation’s workforce requirements, Bersales points out. But the government, she says, does acknowledge a growing population of senior citizens aged 60 and above, most of whom are retired but can remain productive.

Bersales is networking with the Department of Education, Commission on Higher Education and Technical Education and Skills Development Authority for lifelong learning programs specifically designed for senior citizens.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development defines lifelong learning or LLL as “all learning occurring between cradle and grave, from early childhood to training of people beyond their retirement.”

LLL can mean continuing or adult education, extension work or workplace training in new skills.

The International Labor Organization (ILO) has been pushing for LLL programs, which it says can help address the brain drain in developing countries, increase national productivity and reduce poverty.

In the Philippines, the ILO has been encouraging the development of LLL programs focusing on the agricultural sector as well as small and medium enterprises, which account for over 90 percent of businesses in this country.

Bersales emphasizes the importance of transformative education and lifelong learning to prepare the country for the “future economy.”