Biden vs Trump: The sequel

Recent polls suggest that 60 percent of Americans don’t want Donald Trump to run for president in 2024, and 70 percent say President Joe Biden shouldn’t run. Just 42 percent of Americans think Biden is performing well as president. At this same point during his administration, Trump’s rating stood at 38 percent. In 2016, Trump became the oldest person ever to win the White House. He’ll be 77 next year. In 2020, Biden beat Trump and his age record. He is now 80. Yet, improbable as it may seem, America is now preparing for a Biden-Trump rematch in November 2024.

Why is this happening? Let’s start with Trump. In today’s Republican Party, the voter base, not the party elite, is setting the terms of political warfare. For all of his legions of critics, rivals, enemies and legal problems, Donald Trump’s pugilistic populism still inspires millions of supporters, and no one else in today’s Republican Party comes close. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has yet to declare his candidacy as of this writing, looks to be the only possible contender with a chance to beat him. But DeSantis knows he can’t win the party’s presidential nomination without support from millions of Trump voters, and Trump, aware of the governor’s ambitions, is waging a relentless war of criticism and mockery against him before DeSantis is even in the race.

Trump faces serious legal problems, and will face more. Some of the likely charges against him are far more serious than the porn star-hush money case he has already been formally charged in. Yet, none of these prosecutions will move forward for many more months, and not even a conviction can prevent Trump from running for president. In the meantime, Trump’s legal woes will keep his name in the news as a “victim of a political witch hunt,” as the former president tells it, depriving other Republican candidates of the attention they need to overcome his advantages.

Elite Republican lawmakers and many in the donor class blame the political-baggage-laden Trump for losing to the uninspiring Biden in 2020, and many say he cost Republicans the chance to perform much better in last year’s midterm congressional elections. But Trump’s continuing hold on Republican voters who crave his lack of political polish and love his relentless style will ensure that if he wins his party’s nomination contest, the Republican rich and powerful will have little choice but to fall in line, back him and hope for the best.

And why will Democrats allow Biden to carry their standard for another campaign? Nearly half of Democrats polled say Biden is too old for another term, but most feel that another Trump presidency would prove catastrophic. They see little choice but to stick with the man who has beaten Trump before. Modern American presidential history shows that incumbent presidents who choose not to seek re-election (see Truman 1952 and Johnson 1968) or who face tough challengers from within their parties (Carter 1980 and George HW Bush 1992) see their presidential power pass to the other party. Biden’s only challengers up to this point come from rivals with no chance to win. Nor can Biden step aside to allow his vice president to run, since Kamala Harris, the current occupant of that job, is even less popular than Biden is.

There will be important differences between the 2024 race and the first Biden-Trump contest in 2020. This time, Biden is the president, with all the advantages and disadvantages, powers and responsibilities, that the office provides for a candidate seeking re-election. Trump still has a presidential record to brag about and defend, but Biden will be in charge until the votes are counted next November. That also means it will be even harder for Trump to organize any new effort to overturn an election result he doesn’t like.

Another difference: This election is not being run in the middle of a pandemic. That removes an issue from the race that hurt Trump badly in 2020, but it also deprives the aging Biden of any excuse for adopting a light campaign schedule that would helpfully lower his public profile.

In the end, American voters tend to re-elect incumbent presidents, and Biden remains likely to win a rematch with the exhaustingly controversial Trump. But it would be foolish to assume Trump can’t win. Biden’s age will shine a bright spotlight on every new question about his health and personal energy level. Nor are Americans happy with the country’s current direction. In one recent survey, 69 percent of respondents expressed negative views about the economy both now and in the future, the highest percentage in that poll’s 17-year history. Presidents usually take the blame for those kinds of numbers.

Biden’s best hope might well be a Republican opponent other than Trump. Another candidate won’t inspire populist voter passions like Trump can, but if, for any reason, Trump loses the Republican nomination, he might well wage a political war of revenge on his own party, including running as an independent candidate and winning just enough votes in key states to swing the election to Biden. Then again, that threat could help Republicans avoid that fate by sticking with Trump.

For now, the election remains 18 months away, and there will certainly be major news stories and surprises along the way. The timing of a possible economic recession in the United States could be crucial. But one thing is certain: the race for the White House in 2024 will be an extraordinarily ugly one.

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Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media and author of The Power of Crisis.