Making sense of two trips

Abiblical proverb and an old Chinese adage highlight the value of having “a close neighbor than a distant relative.” It should be an admonition to our policymakers since the Philippines is in the middle of a protracted teeth-baring and muscle-flexing between the still-dominant United States and an ascendant China in our region.

In a recent Belt & Road Initiative Forum in Hong Kong, I pointed out that while we have reinforced our defense policy with the Americans through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), we have also strengthened our economic ties with the Chinese nation through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. I capped my speech with a reminder to all South China Sea (or West Philippine Sea) protagonists: A conflict with one’s neighbor is often far worse than a quarrel with kin.

Last week, two developments took place. Malacañang announced President Marcos’ five-day official US visit beginning April 30. I see this as America’s thank-you gift to the Philippines, which granted the US armed forces access to additional military bases.

On April 22, Chinese Foreign Minister and State Councilor Qin Gang paid a courtesy visit to PBBM. It could be equal parts proactive diplomacy and damage control on China’s part on two contentious issues: harassment of Filipinos in the Spratlys and the EDCA sites in Northern Philippines.

So, what do these two interrelated diplomatic trips signify for the country?

Marcos-Qi meeting

I recall that PBBM and President Xi Jinping issued a joint statement last January. They emphasized that the Philippines and China are close neighbors, kin and partners that can work towards a win-win strategic cooperation. Minister Qin reiterated the matter to the President, according to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Qin also asked our government to handle properly Taiwan-related issues and maritime incidents in line with regional peace, respect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and uphold strategic independence rather than picking sides.

The President described the meeting as productive and sought to iron out misinterpreted pronouncements from both countries. Specifically, it clarified the remarks of Ambassador Huang Xilian, who was quoted as saying that if the Philippines cares about its 150,000 workers in Taiwan, it should not give the US access to military bases near the Strait of Taiwan. Further, both parties agreed to establish more communication lines to resolve any incident in the West Philippine Sea.

The meeting should remind the Chinese government to put its money where its mouth is. Since the country’s pivot to China in 2016, we have received minuscule investment and development assistance. Vietnam and Malaysia, which have adopted an antagonistic position against China over the Spratly Islands, accounted for 28.1 percent and 19.2 percent of the ASEAN-China trade share in 2020 (Hong Kong Trade Development Council). The Philippines gets the short end of the stick with an 8.9 percent share.

Since diplomatic negotiations are exempt from the right to information access (Inventory of Exceptions to Executive Order No. 2, s. 2016), I am not privy to what exactly transpired during the Marcos-Qi meeting. My reading of it, however, leads me to believe that PBBM has fully realized that the US-China conflict is a powder keg about to explode at any time. And the three new EDCA sites in Northern Luzon have worsened the situation.

Since 2014, I have voiced my opposition against EDCA and its constitutionality. The new EDCA sites will harm the Philippine interest and regional stability. Moreover, our country cannot claim neutrality when we allow a foreign entity to preposition troops and facilities within our territory for possible offensives against another state. In case a full-scale war erupts in Taiwan, the US will carry out its military from our bases in Luzon. The armed conflict would reduce our OFWs in Taiwan (as a theater of war) and the civilians living around EDCA locations in Cagayan Province and Isabela as collateral damage.

US visit of PBBM

Shortly after the Marcos-Qi meeting, Malacañang announced that PBBM would discuss the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) of 1951 with US President Joe Biden.

In a 2022 public debate, I declared the MDT a “dead treaty” since it has long ceased to serve our core national interest. I cited the legal doctrine ‘rebus sic stantibus’ (Latin: things standing thus), which stipulates that a fundamental change in circumstances can be used as a ground to terminate a treaty.

The accord obligates the Philippines and the United States to support each other in case of an external armed attack on its Pacific territories, but subject to congressional authority. The lack of automaticity and absence of US military aid to the Philippines allowed China to annex our territories in the Spratly Islands: Mischief Reef in 1995 and Panatag Shoal in 2012.

When both parties signed the accord, the world was still under the bipolar rule of the US and the defunct Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). In the 21st century, the emergence of China and the BRICS countries as legitimate challengers to America’s global supremacy has led to a multipolar world order.

In view of the current geopolitical instability in the Indo-Pacific, a thorough assessment of the accord is long overdue. It is imperative for the country to negotiate a defense treaty that would be advantageous to us.

During the visit, I will not be surprised to read a lot of back-patting and hero-worshipping moments between both delegations. Give or take the brief Filipino-American war, the apparent lovefest has been ongoing since the US bought the Philippines from Spain in 1898.

Nonetheless, I still believe that the President is a leader who puts utmost value on the lives and welfare of the Filipinos. He would do everything in his power to prevent the Philippines from being dragged into an international conflict that does not benefit the country in any way.