El Niño 2023

It has been recently said that the world should be bracing itself for the upcoming effects of El Niño as it faces record temperatures fueled by climate change. Records have shown that the world’s hottest year so far was in 2016 and there is a good chance that 2023 will be even hotter.

EU Copernicus scientists published a report not too long ago assessing the climate extremes the world experienced last year, which was said to be its fifth warmest year on record. Copernicus, which is the earth observation component of the European Union Space Program, also stated that the world average global temperature is 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than in pre-industrial times and, despite most of the world’s major emitters committing to cut down their net emissions to zero, global CO2 emissions continued to rise.

As for the Philippines, we are highly influenced by the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and in a briefing, PAGASA said that we are most likely to face El Niño come July this year and it may persist until the next year (2024). It goes without saying therefore that dry spells and droughts in some areas of the Philippines will be a cause for concern, especially agriculturally.

The worst case of El Niño in the Philippines happened between 1982-1983 and was recorded to be the worst in history, as trade winds not only collapsed but also reversed. El Niño happens when the surface water in the equatorial Pacific becomes warmer than usual, with east winds blowing weaker than normal. What we must look out for in such conditions is the wide range of health problems that can occur, such as upper respiratory infections, malnutrition and heat stress.

Most recently, the Philippines and the European Union launched the Copernicus Capacity Support Action Program for the Philippines (CopPhil), making it the first in the region space cooperation program worth P610 million. With the help of the EU’s satellite data in disaster mitigation and climate change adaptation and food security strategies, CopPhil seeks to help the country develop national systems in reducing disaster risk which, as DOST Secretary Renato Solidum says, could prevent hazards from becoming disasters and future proof its developments as well as economic gains.

Secretary Solidum further points out that the demand for innovative approaches that can create disaster resilience has become bigger and CopPhil will develop and leverage our own space science and technology applications to strengthen the nation’s resilience to disasters and climate change.

I, for one, do want a more “shock-resilient” Filipino economy and society, as EU Ambassador to the Philippines Luc Véron says, as it helps us gain perspective and identify our challenges.

As for El Niño, thanks to Copernicus satellites that allow the detection and tracking of the course of this phenomenon, the Philippines not only has a chance to mitigate but also the ability to provide long-term protection against climate changes in our region.

The year 2022, as Copernicus describes, was the year of climate extremes and while the world is rapidly warming, CopPhil is one sure way to help Filipinos not only understand national security issues that include food security, water security and health security, but also participate in it through technology solutions.

There’s still so much for us to learn and, as Nicolaus Copernicus once said, “To know that we know what we know, and to know that we do not know what we do not know, that is true knowledge.”