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This can only be bad news for the people of Sudan.

Over the weekend, American, British and European special forces units began emergency evacuation of their nationals from the Sudanese capital of Khartoum. Other countries, if they had the means to do so, would like to evacuate their nationals as well. Clearly, they estimate conditions in this forsaken country can only move from bad to worse.

Foreigners in Sudan, including tourists and students, are trapped in the intensifying fighting between rival factions in this civil war. Internet services have collapsed, making any coordination difficult. In many cities, electricity and water are unavailable. Food supplies are dwindling. Delivery of emergency relief for millions of trapped Sudanese is hardly possible. There will be misery all over this forsaken country.

Fighting between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have spread from Khartoum to the whole country. The battles are intense and unremitting. Hospitals, including those with babies in incubators, have been abandoned. With fighting in the streets, it is impossible for international aid agencies to bring in any relief. A humanitarian calamity is looming.

Sudan is one of Africa’s largest countries, sprawled over 1.9 million square kilometers. Its population of 46 million are among the world’s poorest. More than just being a vulnerable country, Sudan has had a failed state for decades. That only magnified the misery to be endured.

For many years, Sudan endured a civil war leading to the secession of South Sudan. For three decades, the country was under the thumb of a brutal, Islamist regime led by Omar al-Bashir.

In 2019, besieged by massive street protests demanding an end to the regime, the army mounted a coup. This led to the establishment of a joint military-civilian government. That did not stop public pressure for the restoration of democratic rule.

In October 2021, the interim government was itself overthrown in a second army coup and a council of generals ruled as junta. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the armed forces, became the de facto president of Sudan. The leader of the RSF, Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, was installed as deputy head of government.

The relationship between the two was always tenuous. They disagreed over the transition to a regular government and the plan to integrate the RSF into the regular military force. The two leaders had distinct international entanglements.

The RSF, estimated at about 100,000, was formed in 2013. Its core is composed of former Janjaweed militia responsible for much brutality in the effort to defeat rebels in the Darfur region. This militia stands accused of ethnic cleansing and other crimes against humanity. As the RSF, the same militia is accused of conducting the massacre of 120 protesters in June 2019.

RSF leader Gen. Dagalo intervened in conflicts in Yemen and Libya. There are reports that this militia receives support from the infamous Wagner group through its Libyan allies.

The Wagner group, considered Vladimir Putin’s private army, has been involved in several conflicts in Africa mainly to secure Russian access to gold and other vital minerals. Sudan has potentially rich gold mines that Russia could acquire through discreet intervention to help offset the adverse effects on its economy by the stiff sanctions imposed on it for its aggression in Ukraine.

Dagalo, it has been reported, thinks the ouster of the al-Bashir dictatorship was a mistake. That has put him at odds with the generals of the regular army.

If support is indeed coming from the Wagner group, the RSF might find the means to continue fighting the regular army for a much longer period. Should the RSF prevail, they will likely install a government friendlier to Russia. This might merit some Russian factions sending more arms to the Darfur-based militia despite shortages now endured by Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.

The current fighting between the contending armed factions in Sudan is not likely to end soon. Despite international efforts to forge a ceasefire, the armed clashes have intensified. This is because the dynamics of the situation is a lot more complex than what meets the eye.

Although Sudan is impoverished because of decades of terrible governance, the country is rich in natural resources the global powers are interested in. Russia, we know, is particularly interested in expanding its influence in the African continent. This is why mercenaries of the Wagner group have been found in several conflict zones. Among these zones is Libya, which remains mired in civil war.

Egypt is worried about hostile armed groups across its western border in Libya. Cairo will surely be wary of these hostile armed factions digging roots in its southern border with Sudan. How Egypt will conduct itself in the coming days is a key factor influencing the course of the civil war now engulfing Sudan.

Should the fighting between the regular Sudanese army and the RSF reach a stalemate, there is a possibility that Egypt and other neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia could get involved. The Saudis should be wary of the RSF because of its involvement in the civil war in Yemen. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have, over the past few years, launched attacks on Saudi bases and communities across its northern border.

The situation in Sudan is therefore extremely precarious. The longer the warring groups continue fighting each other, the greater the possibility that this particular civil war could become a proxy struggle among powers in the region and beyond – especially as the Sudanese state collapsed a long while ago.