Russia’s and Philippines’ population decline

In the Soviet era women had 2 children on average, in the 1990s the fertility rate in Russia due to bleek economic prospect dropped to 1.4 and is today at 1.5. All these years the fertility rate remained below the statistic replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Result: The population fell from 148 million in the 1980s to 145 mio today. If the trend continues Russian population will be cut in half to 71 mio in 2100. Bad news for belligerent Putin. He needs canon fodder.

So 5 months ago he revived Stalin’s Mother Heroin Award for mothers who have ten children or more. It is a one-time payment of an equivalent of USD 19,000.

Will it turn Russian housewives into heroic reproductive machines?

Most Russians welcome Putin’s empire building ambitions but do not want that their own children die in Putins permanent wars. They abhorr to see their children indoctrinated and militarized from kindergarden on.

Due to the western sanctions, parents fear to loose job and income. So children were an unbearable burden. Russian appartments and private houses are quite narrow: no space for a separate play-room. No room for intimacy.

Russian girls are surprisingly modern. They adopt all the habits of western girls, listen to the same music and dance with tic-toc. They are not eager to marry, knowing that many men are alcoholics and prone to wife battering. In 2017 domestic violence was decriminalised. It is considered normal and sign of love. The girls study and put career over children. They know the risk that a husband may be mobilized or conscripted and sent to Ukraine or into one of the future wars that Putin is going to wage against renegade Russian provinces.

In order to increase Russia’s population, Putin wanted to add the 44 million Ukrainians, whom he considers the same people to his 145 million empire. But his special military operation aborted disastrously for both peoples and is worsening each day. However he has already added 2 million deported Ukrainians into mainland Russia.

Every day between 700 and 900 Russians fall in his war. Ukrainian statistics count 127,500 Russian casualties up to February 1, 2023. No end is in sight.

More than 500,000 Russians left before the war and 700,000 fled the country in order to avoid mobilization or conscription.

Male mortality in Russia is much higher than in women. Life expectation is 71.34 years for women but for man it is only 58 years. 1 in 4 men does not reach age 60.

Now the economy is turned into war economy. If the remaining workforce builds Putin’s tanks and rockets, is there any man left to built tables and televisions or to repair all the potholes in the streets?

What is a bane for Russia is a boon for the Philippines. Population Tsar Juan Perez of POPCOM announced in August 2022 that fertility rate has dropped from 2.7 in 2017 to 1.9. Family planning and sexual education have reduced teenage pregnancies considerably. The Philippine population is now shrinking. A chance to reduce poverty and to enhance education and workforce qualification. With growing investments all Filipinos shoud find work in the country. No more household and construction slaves for export!

Interesting is what young men and women post in social media on the number of kids they want to have:

Man: Children are expensive and cause headache. I should have a more stable livelyhood and my own car before having a child.

Lady: Maybe 2 at age 32 to 36. I first want to work and become rich.

Lady: It doesn’t even cross my mind at all.

Lady: Marriage is a no for me.

The problem is that the poor still consider numerous children their old-age insurance like in the 1970ties when the average was 6 kids.

To offset that number many couples today have one or none. The DINK Family: Double Income, No Kids is their ideal.