Sleeping with the emperor

President Marcos announced the possibility of joint oil and gas exploration following his state visit to China last week.

Before moving forward with deals underwritten by Xi Jinping, we must be fully aware of who we are dealing with. This is a man who works not for a win-win situation but the sole interest of the Communist Party of China. He ignores rule-based frameworks and accords in which he (or China) are signatories as he does the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas. He lures weaker countries into debt traps as he did to Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Djibouti and others. Nations that express dissent are bullied into submission either by force, bribery or economic sanctions.

An incident that occurred during the 20th Communist Party Congress exemplifies how far Xi is willing to go to quash dissention and impose his will. Our leaders will do well to take heed before jumping into bed with Xi.

It was the week that ended on Oct. 28 – the stock exchanges of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong collectively had its worse single day performance in a decade. Market values across all bourses plunged 14 percent, wiping out some $93 billion in value. Even A-list investors like Warren Buffet, Ray Dalio and Steven Cohen pulled out of China. The reason? The patent decline of free market capitalism, the resurgence of   authoritarianism, policy unpredictability and fear of harassment.

Investor jitters were predicated by a telling spectacle at the closing ceremony of the National Congress of China last Oct. 22. In that event, former Chinese president Hu Jintao was unexpectedly escorted out of the ceremonial hall in the most embarrassing of ways.

Hu, 79, was Xi Jinping’s predecessor. He was seated to Xi’s left. Without warning, two stewards lifted Hu from his seat, led him off stage and out of the Great Hall of the People. The distressed Hu resisted as the stewards walked him out.

The spectacle was meant to humiliate the former president and belittle both his name and contributions.

Prior to the incident, Xi delivered a speech wherein he described Hu’s leadership as weak, corrupt and ineffectual. Xi claimed that China has become stronger under his command.

It will be recalled that Hu championed capitalism in China. He allowed a certain degree of free speech and permitted government corruption cases to be reported by media. He also deregulated the financial markets. All these gave credence to China’s push towards free enterprise. No one can deny that China grew in wealth under Hu’s leadership.

But in the eyes of Xi Jinping, Hu Jintao’s policies weakened the iron grip of the Communist Party on business and society.

Neither Xi nor the Communist Party gave an explanation for the treatment of Hu. In the days that followed, Hu’s name and achievements were erased from Chinese news portals. He was made a ghost. Meanwhile, Hu’s allies in the Communist Party were stripped of their powers while some went missing.

Unlike Xi, Hu voluntarily stepped down when his term ended in 2012. Xi, on the other hand, maneuvered to remove term limits, opening the way for him to be president for life. Xi’s second term should have ended last year but he was given a fresh five-year mandate. He is now considered an emperor rather than just a head of state.

Hu was said to be unhappy about Xi’s unwillingness to step down, as doing so weakened the Chinese legal firmament. It was suspected that Hu intended to speak against giving Xi another five-year term.

Xi evidently orchestrated the spectacle to send a signal that he will not tolerate dissent, not even from a former head of state.

Jack Ma is another example. Ma is bigger than life in China. Abroad, he is the poster boy of Chinese capitalist success. Ma’s popularity has never sat well with Xi.

Ma criticized Xi’s policies, particularly those relating to the management of the financial sector. As a result, the initial public offering of Ma’s Ant Group was blocked. Had the IPO pushed through, the Ant Group would have been the world’s most valuable company that cemented China’s hold on the fintech industry. But this did not matter to Xi. Ma went missing and later surfaced in exile in Japan.

If Xi is willing to cancel a Chinese head of state and a celebrity taipan of Ma’s stature, what more can he do to weaker nations and their leaders if they fail to fall in line with his agenda. Again, rules, treaties and contracts do not matter to the emperor.

Back to the proposed oil and gas exploration – while it is true that there are many dimensions to our relationship with China, it does not negate the fact that the Chinese, under Xi’s command, have already crossed us by illegally occupying our sovereign territories and using military force to bar the entry of our fishermen and coast guards. Our leaders must never, ever fail to underscore this fact in every discourse. To minimize or ignore these transgressions is an act of treachery to the nation.

The Philippines will always be at a disadvantage in any bilateral treaty with China for as long as we are bereft of military capabilities to defend and/or attack. Military might is the language Xi understands. That said, I am wary about signing-off our oil and gas resources in a joint exploration agreement with China. It is imprudent, given their penchant to dishonor contracts and deploy bullying tactics. As an alternative, our leaders may consider securing our interest by making this a multilateral endeavor involving a technology partner. This partner must be of like-minds with the Philippines and wield military gravitas. Without a partner of this sort, a joint undertaking with China will be one fraught with risk.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan