Ripple

Ahead of last Tuesday’s midterm elections in the US, stalwarts of the Republican Party were boldly anticipating a “Red Wave” that will signal the conservative party’s resurgence and ensure them control of the legislative branch. Ted Cruz, wanting to outdo his peers, announced the coming “Red Tsunami” ahead of actual voting.

A number of Republican talking heads were already speaking about the things they would do once they took legislative power – including filing an impeachment against President Joe Biden. Their destructive hyper-partisan rhetoric must have scared some voters.

All the brave talk was easy. Since the last century, the party (especially the Democrats) that controls the executive branch normally gets shellacked in the midterms. All the Republicans had to do was sustain that trend.

There were other things encouraging the brave and pompous talk.

All the polls showed the economy was top of mind for American voters. Inflation was the biggest concern. Republicans spent the past few months blaming the Biden administration for the punishing inflation rate. They expected voters to take out their frustrations of Democratic Party.

It turned out there were other issues on the minds of voters outside the economic issues, such as the overturning of the Roe v. Wade ruling by the US Supreme Court. Women and young voters felt a repressive wave was threatening hard won civil liberties. They saw the conservatives of the Republican Party as the source of this threat.

The Biden administration, for its part, warned the American people about the rise of anti-democratic forces threatening the values on which this society was built. That resonated more than the Republicans realized.

Then, there is the matter of “candidate quality,” to use the words of a senior Republican leader. He fretted over the low quality of the candidates his party fielded, especially those endorsed by former president Donald Trump. The disparity in “candidate quality” did not escape even core Republican voters.

The count is still ongoing, especially in the most contested races. But this has become clear: the much-touted “Red Wave” did not happen. The majorities and minorities in both houses of the US Congress will be thin, regardless of whoever controls them.

What happened is derided as a mere “ripple.” The Republicans will be picking up less seats than what traditionally happens during midterm elections. Some of their highest profile bets, such as Trump-endorsed Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania – lost in what has been described as the costliest senatorial contest ever.

The Democrats could not conceal their joy over the initial numbers. The Republicans threatened them with political annihilation. All the Democrats suffered were a few scratches – fewer than tradition dictated.

More of those candidates endorsed by Donald Trump lost than those who won. This has fueled a lot of talk about the end of the Trump era that infected American politics for too long.

Should the Republicans wrest control of the US House of Representatives, they might put an end to the high profile legislative inquiry into the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol. The committee is well on its way to pinning responsibility on Trump for the attempted insurrection. But then again, with Trump’s power clearly on the wane and with only a thin majority in the chamber, the freshly elected Republican congressmen might be reluctant to undo the inquiry because of the high political costs of doing so.

Within the Republican Party, the fallout of last Tuesday’s vote is almost immediate. Mainline conservatives are eager to push away Trump’s malignant influence over the party and regroup as a more respectable alternative in time for the 2024 presidential contest.

Fox News, once a staunch Trump backer, appears to have shifted its support to Ron DeSantis, apparently the mainline conservative preference for the next presidential contest. DeSantis was reelected to the Florida governorship with an impressive majority and appears to be gearing for a presidential run. The most telling evidence for this is the escalation of Trump’s attacks against him.

Ahead of last Tuesday’s vote, apparently expecting a Republican landslide, Trump scheduled a major announcement for Nov. 15. Everyone expects he will announce his own presidential run. He gave very clear clues about this possibility over the past few weeks.

Outside of Trump’s political base, no one seems unduly excited by the former president’s intention to seek the highest office again. He is too old and too divisive. He personifies the crassest politics Americans have ever seen. He is a curse cast upon American democracy. But he would not go quietly into the night.

The more pragmatic Republicans think the party should move beyond the narrow confines of the Trump base if they hope to seize the presidency in 2024. They are beginning to rally around DeSantis, the party’s rising star.

The rest of the world should be hoping the chaos of the Trump years will not return. While president, the man destabilized alliances the world over and subverted the reliability of American foreign policy. He mishandled the pandemic so badly, the US absorbed the highest casualty toll due to the virus.

We are assured darkness is quickly closing in on Trump. He faces numerous charges and inquiries into how he handled his businesses and his elected office. He may rant and rave from the confines of that tacky resort he now calls home – but to little avail.

The world has moved on. Even Trump’s former political allies are finding ways to move on. This character cannot subsist for much longer.