“Greenhouse gas emissions keep growing. Global temperatures keep rising. And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible. We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator.”
This was in the opening statement of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres at the ongoing Climate Summit in Egypt.
As he urged the assembly of world leaders to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels and speed funding to poorer countries struggling under the negative impact of climate change, he said, “Humanity has a choice, to cooperate or perish.”
Former US vice president Al Gore and a leading environmental champion said at the opening ceremony of the summit, “We have a credibility problem, all of us: we are talking and starting to act, but we are not doing enough. We must see the so-called ‘dash for gas’ for what it really is: a dash down a bridge to nowhere, leaving the countries of the world facing climate chaos and billions in stranded assets especially here in Africa… We have to move beyond the era of fossil fuel colonialism.”
Gore’s comments remind me of what 19-year-old climate activist Greta Thurnberg said about last year’s UN climate summit in Glasgow. She describes the results of the summit as a lot of “blah blah blah.”
From the initial discussions it seems that the world leaders believe that the fight against global warming is a battle for human survival. Yet it is apparent that the world is not moving towards the supposedly global target of limiting the increase of global temperature to 1.5 degrees Centigrade over pre-industrial level. This was the goal agreed upon by members of the United Nations during the Paris Agreement of 2015, seven years ago.
Originally, the major countries wanted the target to be set at 2.0 degrees Centigrade. However, many of the island nations lobbied strongly for a lower target. Their reasoning was simple. For a country like the Maldives, for instance, more than 80 percent of its land was less than one meter above sea level. A rise of more than 1.5 degrees Centigrade of global warming would see most of this country disappear into the sea. Many coastal countries like the Philippines would be at a particular risk of their coastal areas also sinking.
A report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ) in 2018 stated that an increase of 2 degrees Centigrade of global warming would impact every possible domain, from fisheries to floods to droughts to decimated ecosystems. Compared to 1.5 degrees Centigrade, this 2-degree increase would result in 420 million additional people exposed to record heat, millions more would have their livelihood wiped away by higher seas. The Arctic would be expected to become an ice-free area.
This 2018 report, however, also concluded that for the 1.5-degree target to be met, net emissions needed to zero out by the middle of this century. This has become known as the “net zero” target by 2050 which has become the slogan for many politicians, businesses and activists. However, many climate experts and activists believe that the 1.5-degree Centigrade target is now virtually impossible.
There is not even a 50-50 chance of meeting this goal. According to The Economist: “Seven intervening years (since the Paris Agreement) of rising emissions mean such pathways are now firmly in the realm of the incredible. The collapse of civilization might bring it about; so might a comet strike or some other highly unlikely and horrific natural perturbation. Emissions reduction policies will not, however bravely intended.”
One of the most contentious issues in the summit is the demand of the poorer countries for compensation from the richer countries for destruction caused by climate change as typhoons, floods, forest fires and droughts. The reasoning is that it is the richer countries, especially China and the United States, that are the causes for these greenhouse emissions. But the poorer countries have become victims of the destruction caused by climate change.
The global average temperature is currently 1.0 to 1.3 degrees Centigrade above the pre-industrial levels. According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is a 48 percent chance that the global average temperatures will reach 1.5 degrees Centigrade higher than the pre-industrial level sometime during the next five years. Already, there is speculation among many governments that the target should be set at an increase of 2 degrees Centigrade above pre-industrial level, instead of 1.5.
Instead of all these warnings of global catastrophe, the greenhouse gas emissions are actually increasing. Coal was supposed to be totally banned and yet countries, especially China, are still heavily dependent on coal. Oil and natural gas are still being used all over the world. Part of this has been attributed to the strong lobbying by fossil fuel producers.
This Climate Summit ends on Nov. 18. For the sake of the world, we can only hope and pray that there will be solid results to avert impending climate chaos instead of just more “blah blah blah.”
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Write Things’ Zoom classes for November: Nov 19, 10:30 am-noon, last class for adult writers for the year with facilitator Dinah Roma on the art of poetry. Nov 26, 2-3 pm, Young Writers’ Hangout with returning facilitator Susan Lara. Contact writethingsph@gmail.com. 0945.2273216
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