Rise and fall of great powers

Recent events in geopolitics have brought up the question of which nations can be considered the superpowers of the world today. For example, Russia has been perceived as the superpower for almost a century. During the Cold War, the perception was that geopolitically, Russia and the United States were the world’s two superpowers.

When the Cold War ended in 1991, the US was perceived to be the sole superpower in the world. However, at the turn of the 21st century, China began to rise as the second superpower. When Putin became dictator of Russia, he tried to make Russia regain its superpower stature.

The recent failure of Russia to conquer Ukraine after its invasion has revealed that Russia today does not have the status of a superpower. In recent days, the Ukrainian Army has, in fact, began to reclaim territory that was occupied by the Russian invaders. If Russia cannot even easily defeat a relatively smaller country, there is substantial reason to conclude that it cannot call itself a superpower. Russia has a population of 130 million, while Ukraine has a population of 50 million.

China under Xi Jinping has been proclaiming itself as the second superpower in the world. However, when Russia invaded Ukraine, US and Europe declared economic sanctions against Russia and threatened to impose sanctions on any country that would come to the assistance of Russia.  Even if Putin is said to be asking for aid from China, Xi Jinping has not given any overt assistance because it is not prepared to confront the threat of sanctions from the Western world.

It is clear that the United States and Western Europe are still the economic and military superpowers in the world today. Ukraine has brought the Russian invasion to a standstill principally because of its being supplied with advanced weapons from the Western powers, coupled with the nationalist determination of its people to resist the invaders.

It would seem that the United States at present is in a class of its own, economically and militarily. However, world history has shown that the longevity of every major power is based on a nation’s perceived defense requirements and the position to maintain their military commitments anywhere in the world. It must preserve the technological and economic bases of its power from relative erosion in the face of ever shifting patterns of global production. This will be the main test of America’s ability because, like imperial Spain around 1600s or the British Empire around 1900s, it is the inheritor of an array of strategic commitments around the world which has been made decades earlier when the US’s political, economic and military capacity to influence world affairs was so much more assured. The US runs the risk similar to the rise and fall of previous great powers in history of what has been called “imperial overreach.”  The decision-makers in Washington should face the enduring fact that the sum total of the US’s global interests and obligations is presently far larger than the country’s power and resources to defend them all simultaneously.

For example, in spite of its supposed superior armaments, the US was forced to leave Afghanistan and leave it to the mercy of the Talibans.

The rise of the modern global superpower is a product of the modern times. The year 1500, according to most historians like Paul Kennedy, is the date chosen to mark the divide between the modern and the pre-modern world. It was then that we first saw the rise of countries becoming global powers like Spain, Portugal and eventually the British Empire.

The first superpowers were the countries in Europe. It was here where the major economies of the world were developed. Among many reasons for this is the fact that this is where the market economy was introduced.  The companion to this was the rise of the Enlightenment Age and the pursuit of individual liberty.  The Age produced writers like Shakespeare, artists like Michaelangelo and da Vinci and scientists like Galileo.

The only possible alternative to Europe during this same period was China during the Ming Dynasty. China had a bigger population than the entire Europe then. The last Chinese expedition to explore and launch foreign wars was in 1433. After that, the Chinese rulers banned the construction of ships and as a nation, turned inward. One reason was that China looked at the rest of the world as barbaric and uncivilized and not worth the conquest of China. Also, its bureaucracy was run by an intellectual elite called the mandarins who looked down on trade as an occupation. China failed to develop a market economy. Finally, there was increasing pressure from the northern invaders like the Manchus that China had to defend itself.

The rise and fall of great powers will continue to dominate the history of the world.

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I suffered a deep personal loss on September 7 with the passing of a longtime close friend, John C. Kaw, president of Peotraco Food Incorporated, a 97-year-old family company  dominant in the production of confectionery sugar. He is remembered by many in the Tsinoy community as a very active community leader of the Manila Jaycees and the Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce. During the tenure of his good friend, Gen. Angelo Reyes, John was also active in the anti-kidnapping program of the government.

John and I were more than friends because we considered ourselves as brothers. One incident that manifested this brotherhood was during the worst coup d’etat against the Cory Aquino government. I was inside Malacañang because I was head of the Presidential Management Staff. Somehow, John found a way to cross the rebel lines and our own army defense lines to bring food to us in Malacañang, at the risk of his own personal safety.

Farewell, John and a blissful journey to eternity. Thank you for the friendship, all the memories.

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Save our next Zoom date:  Sept. 24: Young Writers’ Hangout with facilitator Sofi Bernedo, 2-3 pm.

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