An independent foreign policy, let’s do it right this time

In his State of the Nation Address, President Bongbong Marcos announced that he will pursue an independent foreign policy. This means that while he will continue to honor our responsibilities to the United States with whom we share a Mutual Defense Treaty, this will not preclude us from proactively establishing areas of cooperation with nations of geopolitical and economic importance to us. This includes Australia, India, Japan, the European Union, the Arab States, South Korea and even China.

There is much to do to calibrate our foreign policy. Although former president Duterte advocated an independent foreign policy too, in reality, his was an outright pivot to China. During his term, Mr. Duterte did not meaningfully engage with the United States nor any European nation. He state visits were Asia-centric, with one visit to Peru and two to Russia.

We look forward to things being different under President Marcos. Our strategic interest should no longer be hinged on a single ally, be it the US or China, but a host of nations with whom we share common interest. Such is the true essence of an independent foreign policy.

The fact that President Marcos has gone on two state visits before his first 100 days in office and has accepted the invitations of China and the US for respective state visits is an indication of proactivity. This is a good thing. It’s about time the Philippines shuns its timid, reactionary stance and becomes more preemptive in setting out its global agenda.

After all, the global community is keen to engage with the Philippines, given our pivotal geographic location, fast-growing economy and diplomatic gravitas as a middle-power nation. Our value to bilateral, trilateral or multilateral accords cannot be denied.

State visits broaden our relationships with partner nations, deepen areas of cooperation, enhance people-to-people engagements and open economic opportunities. Just as FVR did during his time, President Marcos will do well to forge alliances with as many like-minded countries as possible.

The choice of Indonesia and Singapore as the first countries to be visited is an indication that the Marcos administration gives primary importance to its neighbors. It shows that ASEAN is a vital pillar in the formation of our foreign policy. It also highlights Mr. Marcos’ intent to cement the Philippine’s position as a force in ASEAN in the context of security and economic development.

Indonesia was a superb choice as the first country to be engaged. Not only is it the most populous nation in the region, it is also a trillion-dollar economy with the world’s 15th strongest military.

It was wise for the Philippines to sign a five-year Philippine-Indonesian Plan of Action that covers defense, security, anti-terrorism, cultural exchanges and economic cooperation. Our new agreements with Indonesia add another member to our cast of allies and bode well for our independent foreign policy.

Indonesia and the Philippines have much in common outside DNA and culture. Like the Philippines and our West Philippine Sea, Indonesia is geographically critical to world trade with its Straits of Malacca, Lombok and Sunda. Seventy percent of Chinese oil supply and 60 percent of its trade pass through these straits. Like the Philippines again, Indonesia has territorial disputes with China, particularly over the Natuna Islands. Yet, Indonesia has maintained a firm and dignified relationship with the red republic despite its tense territorial dispute. There are important lessons to be learned in the way Indonesia engages with China.

It will be recalled that Indonesia deployed fighter jets when the Chinese encroached the Natuna Islands in 2019. Despite the show of aggression, it continued to enjoy good diplomatic and commercial relations with the Chinese. In fact, it received the lion’s share of Chinese investments and Official Development Assistance, while the Philippines received a pittance despite president Duterte’s meek stance. It shows that China treats meek leaders with contempt, but will strike mutually beneficial deals with leaders who stand their ground and refuse to be intimidated.

President Jokowi leveraged the US against China. In contrast, president Duterte laid out his cards from day one, proclaiming a pivot to China. Later, he even went so far as to cancel the Visiting Forces Agreement with the US, to China’s delight. This turned out to be a foreign policy catastrophe which the Chinese took advantage of.

China baited Mr. Duterte with $24 billion worth of development assistance, among other concessions. In exchange, he would grant China economic concessions including the third telco franchise and, most damagingly, commit not to assert the Philippines’ arbitration victory in the United Nation’s Permanent Court of Arbitration. The $24-billion development funds never materialized.

The divergent strategies of Indonesia and the Philippines yielded varying results. Indonesia bagged the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, among other high-value projects, under the best possible terms from China. The Philippines secured a few low cost bridges and the PNR line. Worse, Chinese foreign direct investments to the Philippines was a pitiful $28.8 million in 2017 and $198.7 in 2018.

The Indonesian experience shows the benefits of pursing an independent foreign policy and how to correctly balance relationships.

Singapore is an excellent second choice for a state visit. Not only is it where 200,000 Filipino OFWs are deployed, it is also the hub of multinational corporations and our top source of foreign investments.

The President inked several agreements relating to cyber security, data privacy, OFW welfare and anti-terrorism. But the real action happened in the sideline meetings where Singaporean companies engaged with our economic managers and private sector leaders. Investor interest was piqued for infrastructure development, high technology manufacturing and knowledge-based industries.

Pursuing an independent foreign policy is definitely the best option for us. The key is to be proactive and to do it right.

*      *      *

Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan