Dazzling

No one expected this. The Ukrainian armed forces is rolling back Russian troops and reclaiming their land at dazzling speed. The army Vladimir Putin sent to invade a peaceful neighbor is retreating in disarray.

Over the weekend, in a 48-hour period, Ukrainian military offensives tripled the amount of land recovered from Russian occupation. Ukraine now claims to have recovered 3,000 square kilometers from Russian control. Its military offensive spans all three fronts in the north, east and south.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive liberated the important city of Izyum, a key logistics hub for the invading Russian army. In their hasty retreat, the Russians left behind large stockpiles of arms and equipment. One Western military analyst estimates that the Russians are losing the equivalent of a battalion a day. At that rate of loss, the occupation of about a fifth of Ukraine will be unsustainable as we move towards the harsh winter.

Moscow, understandably, downplays the offensive, saying they are merely “regrouping” their troops. But other indications speak louder than her claims.

Over the past few weeks, Russia has been negotiating to buy drones from Iran and munitions from North Korea. Outspoken Russian supporters of the war against Ukraine have begun spreading the blame for incompetence of the invading soldiers. One pro-Putin blogger claims the troops on the ground have been abandoned by their superiors. The volume of people evacuating towards Russia ticked up. The pro-Russian governor of an occupied region urged the population to flee across the border.

The Ukrainian armed forces is teaching Russia how to wage war in this technological age.

With amazing skill, Ukraine’s military began by attacking major airfields and supply depots in Crimea, using their own guided missiles alongside commando operations. This was followed, through August, with precise attacks against more vulnerable Russian supply lines and arms caches. This left Russian frontline detachments poorly equipped.

A continuous stream of Western weapons flowing into Ukraine definitely helped Kiev effectively turn the tide of war. Efficient use of handheld surface-air-missiles so daunted the Russian air force that they failed to provide adequate air cover for their units in the frontline. Relentless Ukrainian drone attacks precisely targeted high-value Russian targets, from generals to tanks.

Ukraine has been fighting this war smartly, from information warfare to extensive use of signals intelligence. With help from Western intelligence, they have closely monitored Russian chatter using unsecured communications, including the cellphones of soldiers on the front. Human intelligence, culled from networks of brave partisans in the occupied areas, contributed to the efficient use of Ukrainian battlefield strength.

By contrast, Russia is fighting this war blind.

Her troops are not welcome in the areas they occupied. Her generals work with outdated military doctrines, attacking civilian centers and laying down artillery barrages on everything that stood in the way of her troops.

By contrast, Ukraine’s army is using firepower efficiently, tightly targeting Russian supply hubs and concentrations of armor. Commando operations targeted senior Russian officers and collaborators in the occupied territory. Thousands of drones maintain intensive surveillance over the battlefield, spotting areas of enemy weakness and targets of opportunity.

It did not help Russia’s cause that several of its fighting ships were sunk and its major air and naval bases in Crimea were destroyed by long-range precision missiles. Major fuel and munitions dumps across the border in Russia have been attacked. While Russia is bombing cities wholesale, the Ukrainian army has been closely targeting critical facilities.

Russia is simply unprepared to wage the war it chose to initiate. We saw indications of that early on. A 70-mile long column of armored vehicles was sent out from Belarus to surround Kyiv. That column was wasted by portable anti-tank weapons and precise artillery strikes. The badly battered force (or what was left of it) was soon withdrawn back into Belarus, but not without committing chilling atrocities against Ukrainian civilians.

The wanton killings at Bucha tell us that Russian troops are not only badly trained, they are also badly disciplined. Modern warfare is all about winning global support to one’s side. An army that murders, shoots indiscriminately and commits rape wholesale will not win global sympathy.

Russia, ruled for generations by autocracies of every sort, is not culturally equipped to conduct public diplomacy. While Russian President Vladimir Putin sulks in his heavily protected palace, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky used modern media to address parliaments and even music awards ceremonies to bring his country’s case to the world. Demonstrations in support of Ukraine have been held in the major capitals. Athletes, the latest being women’s tennis champion Iga Swiatek, compete with the Ukrainian colors on their garments.

Russia has long lost the war for global public opinion. Its invasion of Ukraine was unprovoked and whimsical. The nuclear power chose to wage war against a small neighbor that had long renounced nuclear arms. Goliath chose to pick a fight with David.

The last few days, Goliath has been reeling from heavy blows struck by David.

I picked up from journals over the last month the impression that Western military strategists have been discouraging Ukraine’s military from staging a broad counter-offensive, fearing this could not be sustainable. But Ukrainian generals have apparently ignored this advice. They have attacked on all fronts.

Today, the only thing that seems to be holding back a “snowballing” counter-offensive is the sustainability of supply lines. Otherwise, with their spunk and skill, Ukrainian forces could be rolling back Russia’s invasion force at greater speed.