Southeast Asia: Arena for great power rivalry

In Southeast Asia, every leader is in a difficult position. They must learn how to stand up to China unless they are prepared to be a client state. At the same time, they must learn to get along with China. This precarious position seems to be one that the United States does not understand.  For the US and Western Europe, relationships are viewed always from a binary point of view, either you are for us or against us.

This was the big mistake in the Vietnam War when the US invaded Vietnam with the intent of saving the country from communism and placing it within the orbit of the pro-American alliance.  The mantra then was if the US did not come in to “save” Vietnam, this country would have fallen into the hands of the China-based communist forces.

History has proven the fallacy of this theory.  After the US was forced to withdraw from Vietnam, the whole country did fall into the hands of the communist-led North Vietnam. Within a short period of time, after the end of that war, China invaded Vietnam. This was clear evidence that there was no such thing as permanent allies in southeast Asia.  Vietnam was able to repel this invasion, although China also withdrew its invading  forces because of fear of the staggering losses that the American forces had suffered when they invaded Vietnam.

Today, the two countries, US and Vietnam, are allies due primarily to disputes in the South China Sea between Vietnam and China. This is clear proof that conflicts are mainly the result of different interests, rather than ideology.

At present, China has two client states in southeast Asia, Cambodia and Laos. It is no coincidence that these two countries do not bother the South China Sea and therefore have no conflicting territorial claims with China.

Philippine foreign policy is the one that is in a very serious dilemma. In pursuing its so-called independent foreign policy, the Philippines has seriously tried to befriend China. In the past, Philippine foreign policy has been called very pro-American. And this administration seems to have swung the other way. However, there are indications that the Philippines is now seeing the value of being on good terms with both superpowers, China and the United States.

A few years ago, there was a lot of talk that the Philippines would be the beneficiary of massive Chinese aid that would lead to huge infrastructure projects. This has not come to fruition. The Philippines has received much more aid and assistance in its infrastructure from Japan and South Korea. Japan of course is trying to build an alliance in Southeast Asia against the expansion of Chinese influence.

I believe that initially the Philippines thought that it would benefit from the global infrastructure program of China.  However, this Belt and Road program was focused on countries that would provide outlets for China that would connect it to the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

One of the biggest obstacles to fostering trust between China and other countries in Southeast Asia has been its claim to territories that are based on China’s definition of history. In an article discussing the book “China’s Good War: How World War II is Shaping a New Nationalism” by historian Rana  Mitter, Jessica Chen Weiss writes, “But foreign countries and their  citizens hardly pose the biggest obstacle to burnish its legitimacy: the CCP itself is the main barrier. Even when the party allows a more thorough investigation of the wartime past,  it still ruthlessly suppresses narratives – whether about Hong Kong, Tibet or Xinjiang – that challenge its ethnonationalist definition of who and what belongs to China.”

China, for example, bases its territorial claims on all the atolls and reefs within its nine-dash line. Obviously a dubious and self-serving claim.

Countries in Southeast Asia have been lulled into thinking that China would never become an imperial power. This was during the time of Deng Xiaoping. However, Xi Jinping has proven to be very different. He insists that the world should recognize China’s ascendancy as a superior power. Unfortunately, for the world, superior powers eventually become imperialist powers.

Southeast Asia has become the arena for great power rivalry. Although countries like the Philippines would like to remain neutral, this will become more and more difficult as the conflict between the two superpowers becomes more intense. It has become clear that both Beijing and Washington can and do compete and cooperate simultaneously. However, the increase for the areas for competition has begun to be the dominant feature in the relationship between the great powers.

The idea that China would invade Taiwan seems farfetched. But even at the beginning of this year, the idea of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was also considered farfetched.

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In response to COA’s 2021 audit report regarding the National Book Development Board (NBDB)’s Trust Fund reportedly unused since 2019, NBDB executive director Charisse Aquino-Tugade explains that the National Book Development Trust Fund (NBDTF) established in 2009 to provide more grants and incentives for Filipino authors, especially those writing in science and technology, is currently undergoing a review of its guidelines. “The 2022 NBDTF cycle will shift to include the provision of a print-ready manuscript as the cycle’s terminal point. Publication becomes the promise of this new NBDTF cycle, dovetailing neatly with the agency’s goal to provide access to high-quality, locally-authored books.” That holds much promise for Philippine authors and the publication industry.

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Our June writing specials via Zoom: Adult Series session with public historian and columnist Ambeth R. Ocampo on “Writing the Past, the Present, the Future” on June 18, 10:00-11:30 am. Young Writers’ Hangout on June 25 with literary editor Alma Anonas Carpio, 2-3 pm. In answer to inquiries, Write Things’ six-day summer workshop “Writefest” will have a second run on June 27, 29, July 1, 4, 6 & 8 (MWF), 3-4:30 pm.

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