Divided they will fall

The frontrunner’s lead remains considerable, but the camp of the second placer in the latest Pulse Asia survey on presidential candidates was of course heartened by the nine-point improvement in the rating of Vice President Leni Robredo, to 24 percent.

There was also a four-point dip in the rating of Ferdinand Marcos Jr., although he still enjoys a commanding lead at 56 percent in the latest survey taken by Pulse Asia from March 17 to 21.

Meanwhile, the frontrunner for vice president, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio, saw her rating improve by three points to 56, while second placer Senate President Vicente Sotto III lost four points, garnering 20 percent. Robredo’s running mate Sen. Francis Pangilinan rose by four points to 15 percent.

The UniTeam frontrunners are showing the appropriate attitude: even before the survey results were released, they said there’s no room for complacency and they would be running scared until the votes are counted.

Their minions, on the other hand, scoffed at the poll results, believing that the kakampinks are hallucinating in their own echo chamber that Marcos’ lead is surmountable, with just a month to go before election day.

Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes’ main explanation for Robredo’s improvement in the survey is her intensified campaigning, with the sight of those massive crowds at her rallies creating a bandwagon effect.

But Marcos also gets large crowds at his rallies. So how come his rating slipped?

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Facing us on One News’ “The Chiefs” last Wednesday, Holmes said some people might have also been swayed by President Duterte’s endorsement (surely unintended) of Robredo when he said his successor must be a lawyer.

There’s only one other lawyer among the 10 presidential bets, but his rating is below zero and Duterte can’t possibly be referring to him.

Holmes noted that the survey was taken at around the time that the first presidential debate sponsored by the Commission on Elections (Comelec), which Marcos snubbed, could not yet be factored into the survey responses.

Neither could the issue over the unpaid P23-billion estate tax (which has reportedly ballooned to P203 billion) of dictator Ferdinand Marcos. The estate is jointly administered by Marcos’ widow Imelda and only son, candidate Bongbong. The controversy over the non-payment was just starting at the time the survey was taken, Holmes pointed out.

These two issues will be considered in Pulse Asia’s final pre-election survey, to be taken later this month.

Holmes had previously told us that based on their surveys in the 2016 general elections, Filipinos finalized their choices for president only in the last month before election day.

A group that regularly commissions surveys by the country’s two reputable pollsters has also noted that about half of voter preferences tended to be soft – meaning still open to change – until close to election day.

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A common reaction to the latest survey results is that if the non-administration candidates who are rating above one percent in the surveys could rally behind Robredo, she has a good chance of again beating Marcos, as she did by a narrow margin in the 2016 vice presidential race.

For sure, her camp is forging ahead with the thought that this won’t materialize. The best scenario that they can hope for under the circumstances is for her rivals’ supporters to switch to her camp even if the candidates themselves continue their fight to the bitter end.

Still, kakampinks surely won’t mind if certain candidates would rally behind their standard bearer. The hope is that if current trends are sustained, Robredo’s rising and Marcos’ diminishing numbers would intersect at some point, and she could still overtake him by a nose.

For the other non-administration candidates, withdrawal would mean switching their objective, from winning to preventing a return to power of the Marcoses.

Preventing Marcos Sr. from perpetuating his authoritarian rule, with its kleptocracy and crony capitalism, unified the opposition behind a single candidate in the 1986 snap presidential election, with Salvador Laurel setting aside his personal ambition and sliding down to the VP race.

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Manila Mayor Isko Moreno, who continues to court Duterte’s endorsement, has said preventing a Marcos presidency should not be the main goal of anyone seeking the nation’s highest post – an initial swipe at Robredo. Ironically, Yorme Isko was the one who recently put the Marcos estate tax issue front and center in the campaign.

With the release of the latest Pulse Asia poll, Moreno’s camp has said they see a three-way race in May. So it seems unlikely that he’ll drop out of the race to back Robredo. There’s also no certainty that his supporters will align with the kakampinks in case he withdraws. They might instead shift to the UniTeam.

Sen. Panfilo Lacson doesn’t think elections should be controlled by surveys. He was also miffed early on by calls for him to withdraw when Robredo finally ended her discernment and decided to seek the presidency.

Lacson has avoided negative campaigning. But if he truly wants to fight corruption, he would also not want a return to power of the Marcoses.

The same goes for Sen. Manny Pacquiao, who rants against corruption at every turn. He might discern the wisdom of strength in unity. Perhaps Sen. Koko Pimentel, whose late father Aquilino Jr. founded the PDP-Laban together with Ninoy Aquino to fight the Marcos dictatorship, can broker unity talks.

The “presidentiables” whose ratings have remained static can settle for Cabinet posts in case they decide to rally behind a common candidate.

In the race for vice president, non-administration bets can do the same and back second placer Sotto, if the goal is to prevent “Daughterte” from winning. One of the VP bets expressed the need for this during their Comelec-sponsored debate.

We saw the consequences of failure to forge a united front in 2016. Rodrigo Duterte has the disunity in the administration to thank for his landslide win, with Mar Roxas, Grace Poe and partly Jejomar Binay splitting the so-called yellow votes.

This May, Bongbong Marcos looks set to benefit from the splintered non-administration votes. Divided they will fall, again.