Opposition can beat Bongbong if 1-on-1

Five “non-administration” presidential aspirants musn’t race each other to be No. 2. Only first place matters. Leni Robredo, Manny Pacquiao, Isko Moreno, Ping Lacson and Leody de Guzman know that.

Their internal and all independent surveys show Bongbong Marcos leading, 47-53 percent, largely from social media propaganda. The five’s combined rating is less than or equals BBM’s. Only six percent is undecided, and 12 percent at most convincible like in the past to switch sides as command votes.

Three months to Election Day, none of the five can chip at BBM’s margin. Pinning hopes on invalidating BBM’s candidacy, though legally solid, is iffy.

Four of the five must slide out, and put up the strongest against BBM – one-on-one. The only chance to fulfill their campaign promises is to coalesce with the others.

Common platforms can be basis of unity. All five abhor corruption. They hail government’s recovery from BBM’s family of P174 billion in plundered wealth and litigation of P125 billion more. They denounce the administration’s P42-billion procurement of pricey pandemic supplies from Pharmally and other Chinese fly-by-nights of presidential adviser Michael Yang. Shielding those deals from Senate investigation is President Rodrigo Duterte, appointer of the procurers and father of BBM’s running mate Sara Duterte-Carpio. Parties led by plunder convicts and indictees support the BBM-Sara ticket. Sara’s rating: 45 percent.

The five espouse honest leadership by example. All pledge to disclose annual Statements of Assets, Liabilities and Net Worth, as required by law. BBM refuses, echoing Duterte that divulging his SALNs will only open him to political attack.

The five want legislation against political dynasties. A drive against drug traffickers but heals victims. Protection of Filipino fishermen against harassment by Chinese coast guards and armed militia in Philippine seas. BBM has dynasties in Luzon and the Visayas; Sara in Mindanao. Both praise Duterte’s drug war that has killed 7,000 street pushers and users. Belittling Filipino patrols, BBM ignores China’s sea aggression.

The five need to pull together blocs from Left and Right. Robredo already has the national and social democrats; their ideology and economic goals jibe with those of socialists de Guzman and VP running mate Walden Bello. Robredo and Moreno have youth following; Robredo again, and Lacson inspire the middle class. The poor boy roots of Moreno and Pacquiao give hope to the downtrodden. Pacquiao by faith attracts religious charismatics, while Lacson, by training, police-military families.

Church hierarchs can help cohese the five. They wouldn’t want another president aligned with one who curses God and the Creation, treats lightly rape and mass killings and maligns women and critics. NGOs note that the five’s concern for health, education, housing, labor and agriculture complement. Large campaign contributors can shut off the faucet until the five join forces. They’re smart and will bet only on a winner, not five sure losers.

Disunity spells defeat, electoral history teaches, like Imelda Marcos and Danding Cojuangco in 1992, Fernando Poe Jr. and Lacson in 2004, Mar Roxas and Grace Poe in 2016. Other lands promote coalescing: in France, 79 percent forecast Emmanuel Macron’s second term by only a slim margin. So he’s striving to charm as many small parties as he can.

Duterte has cussed Robredo as “dumb,” Pacquiao as “punch drunk,” Moreno as “callboy” and Lacson as “crooked.” It would be foolish to believe he would now endorse one of them. Notwithstanding Duterte’s popularity and his ruling party’s campaign war chest, such endorsement could backfire. The endorsee will be branded as “Katas ng Pharmally at Malampaya.”

Duterte’s playbook is apparent: something about getting the “cocaine addict” disqualified post-election, then elevating the elected VP to president. That only means the five non-administration “presidentiables” should also pick the most winnable among their running mates.

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Hapless bus riders between Metro Manila and north Luzon have found a champion in former senator Nikki Coseteng. A regular commuter to Baguio, she finds cruel the forced alighting at a common bus terminal in Bocaue, Bulacan, 30 kilometers from the capital. Finding a city bus to Bocaue is hell, let alone getting off at the highway for a tricycle ride to the terminal. Manila-bound riders must get off there too, taking two or more rides to final destinations. Laborious even without luggage, merchandise or children in tow.

Coseteng told Sapol-dwIZ Saturday of fellow-passengers’ travails. A single mom in La Union buys and sells apparel from Divisoria. She used to alight at the bus line’s private depot in Caloocan, then hop on a jitney to market. Transport authorities now forbid provincial buses from proceeding to the city where they “clog up EDSA;” yet that line doesn’t even traverse EDSA. A broom-maker grandpa in Cagayan totes his wares to Cubao and must now change buses at Bocaue. Vacationers and fatigued workers must endure a “hare-brained policy,” Coseteng said.

The hassle discourages commuting. “Trade and tourism officials say, ‘Let’s reopen and move the economy’,” Coseteng noted. “How do you move the economy if you can’t move people?”

Blaming provincial buses for EDSA traffic is unfair, Coseteng added: “Twelve thousand city and provincial buses ply EDSA versus 250,000 private cars. It’s obvious who’s causing the jams. How many more people can fit into a bus’ 30-square-meter capacity, if authorities provide vehicle owners efficient public transport? I can drive my car to Baguio, but I took buses to relax and sleep. Not anymore.”

The option is to take “colorum” private vans. Those un-franchised transports have no ticket, accident insurance, safe distancing and backup in case of breakdown. Fare is three to ten times more than on regulated buses.

Bus operators are losing money to the illegal vans. They get fined up to P1 million for going out of route but colorums go scot-free. They can’t complain, however, lest they anger regulators, Coseteng said. Operators just hope their and the commuters’ plight will change when the administration steps down in end-June.