Reset from pandemic to endemic

The country’s head start to recovery from the adverse impact of the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic got a big boost from the economic growth registered in the last three months of the year just ended. On an annual basis, the Philippine economy saw a 7.7 percent growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of the fourth quarter in 2021. This brought the full-year GDP growth to 5.6 percent, the Department of Finance, headed by Secretary Carlos Dominguez, reported on Wednesday.

The country’s production performance exceeded private sector expectations and target for the entire year set by the economic managers of President Rodrigo Duterte. The economic team headed by the Finance Secretary noted the Philippine economy performed very well while health and government authorities try to manage the latest wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in our country. However, the more transmissible Omicron variant spread like wildfire in the National Capital Region (NCR) last month.

Thus, the private business sector fears the country’s economic recovery might suffer “speed bump” after the more stringent Alert Level 3 was raised over the entire NCR. Composed of 16 cities and one municipality, the NCR accounts for almost 60 percent of the country’s GDP growth.

Fortunately, the Omicron-related surge peaked for a short period of time only. It has since then gone down from the month-ago level after the first cases got detected here. This was the characteristic pattern of the Omicron variant that hit other COVID-stricken countries late last year. So effective last Tuesday, the Inter-Agency Task Force on the Management of the Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-MEID) lowered the Alert Level 3 over the entire NCR and seven other areas in the country to Alert Level 2 until Feb.15.

The Omicron variant, however, was notably observed as less severe and did not unduly burden the country’s health care system compared to past waves of COVID-19 pandemic. But such situation was observed because many of the country’s population have already got full doses of anti-COVID vaccines and booster shots.

Given the latest indicators closely monitored by the Department of Health (DOH), presidential adviser on COVID-19 responses, Secretary Vivencio “Vince” Dizon is optimistic the entire country may soon see the further downgrading to Alert Level 1 within this month. Monitored by the DOH, the IATF issues Alert Levels – from 1 as low risk to 5 as the highest – on area basis depending on the reported number of COVID-19 cases. Doing away with the hard lockdowns, the IATF imposes “granular lockdown” wherever there is clustering of COVID-19 cases.

Dizon’s optimism is shared by Presidential adviser on entrepreneurship and Go Negosyo founder Joey Concepcion who credited the private business sector support to IATF’s strategy on hard lockdown while there was still a supply shortage of anti-COVID vaccines last year. But now, there is already an over-supply of anti-COVID vaccines, Concepcion pointed out, the NCR and other parts of the country have achieved more than 70 percent of the population having a full dose of anti-COVID jabs.

Dizon and Concepcion reached to common views on the possible revising, if not totally scrapping the present Alert Level System during our conversations with both as featured guests of my Kapihan sa Manila Bay virtual news forum last Wednesday. We had intermittent internet transmission though with Dizon who was in Cebu along with National Task Force (NTF) chief implementer and designated “vaccine czar” Carlito Galvez Jr. for the launching of the pharmacy-based vaccination program of the IATF.

As the concurrent NTF deputy chief implementer and the designated “treatment czar,” Dizon believes the Philippines is now ready to shift to the direction of addressing the COVID-19 pandemic to endemic mode. “Maybe give us this month to put it together. Secretary Galvez and I at the NTF along with the IATF, we will put together our plan to move from the state of pandemic to endemic approach,” Dizon declared.

“I think we are already headed in that direction,” quipped the Presidential adviser on COVID responses.

Ironically, we had a clearer online chat via zoom webinar with Concepcion who was staying in much faraway San Francisco, California on official business cum vacation for him. After almost 22 months, Concepcion related to us, he was able to travel abroad again even while the COVID-19 pandemic remains a threat to public health. Before flying though, Concepcion got already his primary doses of AstraZeneca and booster shot of Moderna vaccine.

“The bottom line is vaccination, it give us immunity and immunity would protect us from infection,” Concepcion cited. In fact, he disclosed, in SARS-COV2 antibody serology test he underwent recently showed he’s got antibodies more than the normal level since then.

Concepcion heaved a sigh of relief that he brought along his vaccination (vax) and booster cards in this trip to the United States. The vax cards are required not only by airlines, but also serve as the entry pass required in restaurants, sports arena and other closed establishments in many places in the US. The “No vax, no entry” is strictly applied, he disclosed, especially at in-door establishments and even outdoor events taking place there. Though the facemask is not mandatory, he noted, the majority of the people wear this protection and generally observe social distancing.

Concepcion shared some of these observations under the so-called “new normal” ushered in by the COVID-19 pandemic. He agrees with the 70 percent population of vaccinated people as the so-called minimum “herd immunity” in the campaign to effectively stop the spread of COVID-19. Thus, he suggested to adopt this standard of 70 percent vaccinated in doing away with less encompassing areas to place Alert Level system as part of the gradual shift to approach to endemic mode.

However, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned against lowering our guards with the dangers COVID-19 variants still lurking. But reset, we must move on from pandemic to endemic.