Booster shots for the Phl economy

Amid the resurgence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in our country, doomsayers along with conspiracy theorists have started spreading rumors of supposed plots of President Rodrigo Duterte to re-impose a nationwide lockdown preceding a martial law declaration. One of the rumors claim a purported plot of President Duterte to announce a “total lockdown” up to the end of this month to stop the spread of Omicron variant.

This might be another shaking of the tree by this administration to test public pulse. To give it some credence, they even ask people to stock up on food and other basic supplies. Pushing panic buttons and spreading unfounded fears through the social media are more virulent than the Omicron and Delta variants combined.

The rumors flew thick last week following the return to Alert Level 3 of the entire National Capital Region (NCR) effective from Jan. 3 to 15. Upon the recommendations of the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-MEID), President Duterte approved to raise from Alert Level 2 and reimpose the more restrictive anti-COVID guidelines.

Headed by Department of Health (DOH) Secretary Francisco Duque as co-chairman, the IATF detected a renewed spike of COVID-19 cases immediately after the almost two weeks of the Christmas holiday season. This was while many parts of the country, including the NCR were under lesser restrictive guidelines of the IATF. Subsequently, the IATF expanded the coverage of Alert Level 3 to the rest of the so-called NCR Plus that included Metro Manila’s neighboring provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal.

Despite all these anti-COVID measures, what flummoxed President Duterte is the fact that the 17 local government units (LGUs) in Metro Manila have vaccinated more than 100% of their respective population for anti-COVID inoculation targets. The latest surge include “breakthrough” COVID-19 infections among vaccinated people who apparently got it from their Christmas holiday activities. Last Jan. 3, MMDA chairman Benhur Abalos announced the unanimous decision of Metro Manila mayors to pass their respective local ordinances restricting the movements and mobility of unvaccinated people.

Describing the surge of COVID-19 cases as “spreading like wildfire,” President Duterte upheld the NCR mayors. The Chief Executive empowered all the police authorities and barangay officials “to arrest” unvaccinated individuals if they refuse to comply to stay at home. The IATF has yet to issue an official edict from the President if such restriction at the NCR against unvaccinated people will be replicated and applied all over the Philippines.

In the meantime, the Development Budget Coordination Committee is closely monitoring the impact of the new wave of COVID-19 cases, especially in the NCR Plus. The DBCC, composed of the President’s economic managers, have consistently stood against hard lockdowns. But they fully support a granular lockdown as the more effective control measure against community transmissions of COVID-19 infection and whatever variants.

The DBCC estimated the shift to Alert Level 3 for NCR Plus will result to an economic loss of about P3 billion a week. The NCR Plus generates annually about 50 to 60% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). That was before the pandemic two years ago. The NCR Plus have since been the “hot zone” of COVID-19 surges for the past two years but still posted robust contributions to the GDP growth.

“While this may delay our goal of shifting to Alert level 1, we believe that this is a temporary setback and is a necessary adjustment in view of the new COVID variant. As we previously said, we are in a better position to manage possible spikes — we have enough vaccines and funding for booster shots; we have increased hospital capacity; we now resort to granular lockdowns; and, from all indications, the Omicron variant results in less severe cases, especially to those who are fully vaccinated,” the DBCC reassured the public in a joint statement they issued on Friday.

As of Jan. 5, the IATF reported that a total of 110.9 million doses have been rolled out all over the Philippines. Of this, 57.3 million and 51.1 million doses were administered as the first dose and complete dose, respectively, while 2.5 million doses were administered as booster doses. Since the NCR Plus have been the “gravity center” of the pandemic, including this latest surge, they have been receiving the bulk of the procured and donated anti-COVID vaccines in accordance with the IATF allocations. This is not to mention the fact the LGUs and the private sector have procured their own anti-COVID vaccines.

So in effect, the Philippine economy have been sort of got immunized from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Metaphorically speaking, the country’s economy also got its recent “booster” shot from the recent signing into law by President Duterte of the 2022 General Appropriations Act (GAA). The DBCC cited the annual budget is the country’s main “fiscal stimulus.” As the DBCC crafted the 2022 GAA and as approved by the 18th Congress, it provided more funds out of realigned allocations for COVID response and recovery priority measures.

Likewise, the extended validity of the 2021 GAA that the 18th Congress passed and which President Duterte approved will fuel more “fiscal stimulus” to accelerate the implementation of COVID-19 recovery measures, the DBCC added.

However, what the DBCC glossed over is much of the realigned allocations for COVID-19 related expenses were placed under the “unprogrammed funds” of the 2022 budget. This means any expenditure being charged to it will be subject to availability of funds as certified by the National Treasurer. Nonetheless, such standby funds will support the resilience of the economy against the emergence of new variants and future economic shocks.

These “booster shots” will hopefully immunize the Philippine economy from the malingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, the economic prospects for 2022 remain promising.