Omicron: Is this the final wave?

With the Omicron variant now raging all over the United States, accounting for more than 73 percent of new infections, people are tired and at times angry – asking, when is this going to end? With an average daily case load of 150,000 since the variant was first detected in November, experts are projecting a continuing surge through December, peaking in mid-January to as high as 400,000 cases per day across the US. The countrywide spike in infections has also forced several US airlines to cancel over 200 Christmas Eve flights as a “proactive measure” to minimize the impact of Omicron. 

The World Health Organization has warned that Omicron will be the dominant variant in Europe, with record-high cases in France and the UK. Spain, Greece and Italy are now imposing mask mandates, with some cities introducing curfews to prevent a new wave of infections from sweeping their countries. Aside from the holiday season that has driven gatherings, the cold weather also exacerbates the situation, as several studies have confirmed that COVID-19 infections increase in cold temperatures, regardless of where people live. 

During the 1918 flu pandemic – considered as the deadliest since the 1900s, lasting for more than two years and causing over 50 million deaths – the second and third waves of infection were considered as the deadliest. The second wave during the fall of 1918 was described as horrific, “marked by high virulence and fatality” and compounded by secondary bacterial infections, with the cold weather and low humidity enabling the virus to stay longer in the air. The third wave manifested during the winter of 1918, spilling through the spring of 1919 but miraculously subsiding during the summer.  

Historians say the flu virus easily spread globally as it manifested towards the latter part of World War I, with soldiers packed in crowded camps and bringing the virus with them when they moved or traveled. Aside from the fact that there was little knowledge about the virus – now identified as H1N1 and believed to have originated from wild aquatic birds – no vaccine was available, and neither were there any antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections associated with influenza.  

With the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of strains have emerged (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Lambda), with a few of them causing waves (a pattern wherein new cases would surge followed by a decline). The Delta variant has proved to be one of the most virulent, with breakthrough infections also noted among vaccinated individuals. However, a growing body of research indicates that Omicron is outstripping Delta in terms of transmissibility. 

Scientists are foreseeing a global wave of COVID-19 infections due to Omicron’s increased transmissibility, with 36 mutations in its spike protein – three times more than other variants including Delta. While the effects of Omicron seem milder according to studies conducted in South Africa, Scotland and the UK, researchers are alarmed at the incredible speed of infection, causing hospital systems to be overwhelmed and making Omicron extremely dangerous.

A University of Texas Medical Branch study also revealed that individuals who have previously recovered from COVID-19, but have not been vaccinated, may not have as much immunity from Omicron. Research also suggests that many vaccines will likely offer no protection against becoming infected by the Omicron variant, except for those developed using new mRNA technology – specifically Pfizer and Moderna – reinforced by booster shots. 

What is really consoling is that scientists believe that those who have been fully vaccinated and have received boosters especially with mRNA vaccines are not likely to be hospitalized and may only suffer mild illness. 

Aside from the development of mRNA vaccines, another significant milestone in the battle against COVID-19 is the approval by the US FDA for Paxlovid, the first antiviral pill to treat COVID-19. Studies show that Paxlovid manufactured by Pfizer reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by almost 90 percent when taken within three days after symptoms appear. When taken within five days of symptom manifestation, the risk of death and hospitalization is reduced by 88 percent. We are pleased to report that on behalf of our county, we have already lined up to acquire the pills once global supply is made available.  

While Omicron may not be the last variant, data are increasingly showing that this could be the last “variant of concern” (meaning it has increased transmissibility or causes severe illness or death) because the virus “cannot improve indefinitely” and the immune system will eventually be able to adapt by making antibodies that can neutralize the virus.  

Let’s not forget, vaccines trigger the creation of antibodies and certainly, vaccination is much better than achieving endemic status through high transmission rates among the unvaccinated, which brings the risk of death. Scientists are optimistic that by late next year, COVID-19 could transition to an endemic status pretty much like the flu that is present in many regions but more manageable due to regular booster shots, resulting in lesser hospitalizations and death. 

This Christmas is by no means the same as last year because there is a lot more hope now that this pandemic will soon be over.

The other day, a good friend narrated to me about his 11-year-old daughter whose favorite uncle died from COVID-19, telling him she had only one wish from God this Christmas: That this pandemic will soon be over, with no more people dying or suffering. 

We can all relate with this little girl’s grief and share her wish that indeed, the best Christmas gift we can ask from God is for this pandemic to finally be over.

*      *      *

Email: [email protected]