Generation

We are not yet done rehabilitating the areas devastated by Typhoon Yolanda in 2013. We not even done rehabilitating the City of Marawi, a compact area devastated by an invasion of Islamist militants.

It could take us a generation to fully rebuild the areas devastated by Typhoon Odette.

The path of destruction is long and wide. It stretches from Dinagat and Siargao islands, the Surigao provinces, Bohol and Cebu, southern Leyte, the entire Negros island and Palawan. From aerial photos, the most damaged communities appear like powerful bombs were dropped on them.

Our infrastructure in these areas seemed puny in the face of Odette’s wrath. Public buildings and private homes were blown away. Even secure areas designated as evacuation sites were damaged. Airport terminals simply collapsed before the wall of wind.

Odette crossed parts of the country that are not usually visited by strong typhoons. Homes built with light materials were blown down like houses of cards. Countless small fishing boats were smashed ashore by storm surges. Famous tourist spots were hammered.

In a region that relies so much on fishing and tourism, the future looks very dire indeed.

From the looks of it, tens of thousands of homes need to be rebuilt. In the meantime, so many will be homeless. We have neither the plan nor the means to provide temporary shelter for so many.

With the supply chains broken in so many places, sheer survival will be a challenge over the following days. There are still island communities that could not be reached.

Our public agencies, many private donors and foreign governments are rushing aid to the stricken areas. But the need, I fear, will quickly outstrip the flow of emergency support. Hunger will stalk the land.

Many years ago, when the sugar industry failed, there was famine on Negros island. Today, the economy has failed in a dozen provinces in the Visayas and Northern Mindanao.

Power will be down in many areas for many weeks. The ports in the devastated areas will be barely functional. Only the Philippine Navy and the Coast Guard provide some semblance of access to many island communities. The volume they can carry will not be enough to feed the hungry multitudes.

With due credit to the thousands of volunteers, manually repacking rice and canned goods, the whole effort will be puny. There should be a better way of rushing aid to the beleaguered communities than having candidates accompanied by celebrities distributing relief bags. One way could be to download cash to the local governments and allow the superior logistics systems of the large retail chains to do their job.

This is not the first Christmas we are celebrating in the sorrowful wake of a severe weather event. It will not be the last.

But each time, we have managed to respond with grit and cheer.

Majority

I have seen an early release of the latest Pulse Asia preference survey that I presume is genuine. That survey shows Bongbong Marcos winning a 53 percent share of the vote.

There are no surprises here. This has been the trend indicated by other surveys the past few days. The Pulse Asia survey reinforces this clear trend.

What is remarkable in this last survey is that Marcos is winning the NCR in a big way. In what is considered the country’s opinion leader, the most populous region gives Marcos a 61 percent share, followed by Isko Moreno at 17 percent and Leni Robredo at 14 percent.

Although holding a lesser stock of the votes, Mindanao gives Marcos an even larger share at 64 percent. Robredo gets only 10 percent. The Solid North and the Solid South are holding.

Equally remarkable, Marcos gets 53 percent of the ABC vote and 54 percent of the D vote. That should put to rest the propaganda from the Robredo camp painting the Marcos voters as “bobotantes” driven entirely by misinformation.

If elections were held today, he will be the first majority president under the 1987 Constitution. That, too, is remarkable.

He will likely win the elections in tandem with running mate Sara Duterte. Sara is holding her own against a strong rival in Tito Sotto.

A group of hard-nosed businessmen I met with earlier this week relish the idea of having a majority president in Bongbong Marcos. Winning a majority of the vote will provide the next administration with a sufficient stock of political capital that could be used to cut the many policy Gordian knots that hold the country back.

The discussion did not even touch on the electoral prospects of the lesser candidates. It seemed these businessmen are assuming that it is all over except for the actual voting. The lead indicated by the preference surveys is simply insurmountable. These hard-nosed businessmen were more interested in speculating on the composition of the Marcos II Cabinet.

There are not likely to be early answers to the curiosities of businessmen. Having achieved a majority of voter preference, the Marcos campaign will tend to be very conservative in its strategy and tactics. It will concentrate on consolidating the voters already won to its side. Local alliances will be the principal tool for doing that.

On the other hand, the lesser candidates will have to do spinning wheels and utter outlandish things to break the developing trend. Their campaign tactics will try to be disruptive, with high risk of backfiring.

Or else, they could try to settle this electoral contest through extra-electoral means such as having Marcos disqualified. But that could open the door to civil war or a coup.