Surprised by Odette

The most surprising thing about Super Typhoon Odette, in our land that serves as a welcome mat for the Pacific’s tropical cyclones, is how the force of Odette caught us by surprise.

It wasn’t for lack of a warning. Storm trackers were monitoring the cyclone as early as Monday last week when it was still a storm called Rai over the Pacific. Two days before Odette struck, my kasambahay was chatting by phone with her relatives in Leyte, who were worried that their house roof might not withstand what they heard was a Signal No. 4 typhoon heading their way.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center likened Rai to a Category 5 hurricane, just slightly less severe than Super Typhoon Yolanda. Trackers said it escalated from a Category 1 to 5 within just a day.

Bohol Gov. Arthur Yap said they received sufficient warning fairly late that Odette would be an unusually powerful typhoon, and they had only 24 hours to prepare for the worst.

At least they still had 24 hours. The tourist island of Siargao, which has reopened to leisure travelers, seemed completely unprepared for the severity of Odette as it made landfall with initial winds of up to 260 kilometers per hour and gusts of over 300 kph.

There are some theories, not entirely baseless, about the lack of preparedness. One is that we are all preoccupied with COVID-19 and the emerging threat of Omicron, while officialdom is at the same time preoccupied with the 2022 elections.

Another is that in an archipelago visited by an average of 20 tropical cyclones every year, there are typhoons, and there are typhoons; people need to be nagged about the strength of an approaching cyclone before we seriously worry.

It probably contributed to complacency that on Nov. 1 last year, Super Typhoon Rolly, for which everyone was fully prepared, didn’t cause the expected massive destruction as it smashed into Bicol and left a relatively low death toll of over 20. But surely the high state of preparedness minimized the damage and casualty count.

Compounding the problem of timely evacuation for Odette was the fear of catching COVID in crowded evacuation centers with inadequate water and sanitation facilities.

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Still, since Super Typhoon Yolanda, we were supposed to have fine-tuned disaster responses, starting from the release of timely and accurate storm alerts to evacuation, rescue and post-storm relief.

Geologist Mahar Lagmay, executive director of the University of the Philippines Resilience Institute, says the country is not lacking in technology to identify areas that are at highest risk of storm surges, flooding and mudslides when typhoons approach.

Lagmay is familiar with these capabilities, being the executive director of Project NOAH, or Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards, the country’s primary program for disaster risk reduction and management.

He told us on One News’ “The Chiefs” last Monday that the problem was proper communication of the threat posed by Odette in specific areas.

Odette also made so many landfalls, Lagmay noted, going island-hopping and picking up water in between. This, Lagmay explained, boosted its strength as it roared across the country, when the normal storm behavior is to weaken slightly after making landfall.

While fishermen’s huts and other flimsy structures do not stand a chance against storm surges generated by a super typhoon, other structures can be fortified, Lagmay said.

It is impossible to save every coconut tree from being flattened by peak winds of 260 kph, but people can at least try saving heritage trees prized for their age, size and rarity.

Even the not-so-old or rare can be protected. After the mango tree in my garden leaned dangerously during the onslaught of a powerful typhoon some years ago, it was secured with rope to concrete posts and a metal fence. It has so far withstood subsequent strong typhoons.

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Lagmay says concrete houses and buildings can be designed to be sturdier and more resilient to typhoons and other natural disasters, just as high-rise buildings are now being required to incorporate earthquake-resilient technology in their design.

Building for disaster resilience, however, can be costly, and is out of the question for marginalized communities where flimsy dwellings can be blown away even by a minor tornado.

There are detailed weather and geohazard maps identifying areas nationwide that are vulnerable to storm surges, torrential flooding, landslides, earthquakes and volcanic lahar flows. Scientists have been urging local government officials to take time to study the maps carefully for safe zoning and development of sites for evacuation.

My guess is that local executives find this useless since fishing families would keep building their huts in coastal areas that are naturally at higher risk of storm surges. Those depending on marginal agroforestry for a living won’t care if they are told that they are living on a mudslide-prone mountain slope.

Still, there can be small victories in climate resilience efforts. Reforestation is possible to make agroforestry sustainable. This was initiated along the banks of the Cagayan River and surrounding slopes following the once-in-a-century torrential flooding that hit the area in December 2019.

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In urban centers, we can take lessons from disaster-prone Japan in preparedness. Signs are displayed prominently in many Japanese cities, giving directions to the nearest evacuation center in case of a killer earthquake, destructive cyclone or other disasters. There are signs indicating where drinking water can be obtained and where emergency phone charging is available. Disaster preparedness is taught from grade school. Earthquake and fire simulation sites give people a better grasp of what to expect and what to do if disaster strikes. Households have emergency packs containing items needed for the early hours of evacuation, such as bottled water, flashlight and first aid kits.

Japanese bridges and other public works infrastructure are heavily fortified against the catastrophic earthquakes that regularly visit the country.

Nature’s fury is unpredictable though, and even highly prepared Japan could not be ready for the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and the ensuing apocalyptic tsunami and nuclear meltdown on March 11, 2011.

But preparedness is possible for the many other disasters of lesser magnitude that strike regularly.

In this period of illness, death and unrelenting suffering from COVID, it is doubly tragic that the year is ending in deeper sorrow for those who have lost their loved ones, livelihoods and the roof on their heads, courtesy of Odette.

Will we ever be prepared for nature’s fury? We must try and do better next time. The cost of being caught by surprise, as we are seeing, can be steep.