Optimistic

This could not have been a bad year.

At the end of it, the SWS reports that 96% of Filipinos are optimistic about the future. That has to be an unprecedented optimism rate.

The SWS report coheres with the Pulse Asia yearend survey. That survey shows that nearly 9 of every 10 Filipinos approve of how President Duterte has been doing his job. Other high government officials have registered nearly as impressive approval rates.

Our people are happy – as they should be.

Over the last three years, government’s high-growth strategy lifted six million Filipinos from poverty. From a poverty rate of about 24% in 2016, poverty incidence had been brought down to less than 16%. A central, measurable promise made by President Duterte was to bring down poverty incidence to just 14% by 2022. We are reducing poverty faster than projected.

Employment is at a 14-year high. Inflation will be under 2%. Early next year, ahead of schedule, the country is graduating to the ranks of “upper middle-income” economies. The peso is on record as the second best performing currency in Asia. 

The country received a credit rating upgrade of AAA+ this year. This works well not only for government borrowing but also for private sector financing. It gives the BSP enough headroom to cut rates and bank reserve requirements in order to spur growth.

As the last tranches of the comprehensive tax reform package are in the advanced stages of legislation, the Secretary of Finance expressed confidence we could be upgraded to “A” rating before the end of President Duterte’s term.

The national budget will be enacted on time. The delay in the passage of the 2019 budget set back pump-priming programs and probably cost our economy a full percentage point in the GDP growth rate.

A legislative measure singed into law last week allows government to utilize expenditure items in the 2019 budget up until the end of 2020. That will magnify the growth impact of the P4.1 trillion 2020 budget.

The double-barreled public spending plan happening in 2020 excites Henry Lim Bon Liong, president of the Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce. He predicts 2020 growth in the range of 7% to 7.5%. This will happen regardless of the strong headwinds created by the global economic slowdown.

Private sector investments will complement public spending. In about two weeks, ground will be broken for the huge Bulacan airport. Government has approved the upgrades of the Davao City and Tagbilaran airports by way of PPP.

San Miguel announced investments amounting to P18 billion to build the Pandacan logistics hub attached to the Skyway Phase 3 project. More expressways will be built next year.

The optimism is understandable.

Hard work

Hard work, not luck, explains the astronomical approval ratings of our highest public officials.

Normally, the approval ratings of presidents begin to decline after the midpoint in their terms of office. President Duterte’s gravity-defying 87% approval rate is awesome by any measure. It reinforces his political capital and magnifies his endorsement power when the time comes to think about succession.

It was House Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano who posted the biggest jump in approval rates. From a respectable 62% in September, Cayetano’s approval rate jumped to 76% in December. The 14-point jump happens even as Cayetano has only been five months on the job.

Of course, the astounding national triumph that was the 30th Southeast Asian Games helped position Cayetano in the public eye. But there are more sustained reasons for this spectacular rise in approval ratings.

Deputy Speaker Roberto Puno says Cayetano’s brand of leadership and appetite for hard work helped restore the image of the House of Representatives as a responsible and reliable legislative body.

Cebu Rep. Pablo John Garcia says Cayetano has made the House a more productive chamber by instilling discipline among its members. It is discipline inspired by the Speaker’s own example.

Surigao del Sur’s Prospero Pichay adds that it is not the quantity but the quality of legislation that passed the House that impressed public opinion. He mentions that the chamber passed a pork-free budget in good time. In addition, crucial tax reform packages have likewise been passed, improving government’s ability to fund the National Health Care program.

These include: the Corporate Income Tax and Incentive Rationalization Act (CITIRA), the Passive Income and Financial Intermediary Act (PIFITA), the Tobacco Tax Reform Bill and a bill imposing higher taxes on alcohol and e-cigarettes.  In addition, the House passed the new Salary Standardization Law that will raise the pay of state workers as well as amendments to the Foreign Investments Act to help encourage investments in our economy.

The House is now working on the bill creating a Department of National Resilience. This has been certified urgent by the Duterte administration to strengthen our capacity to respond to severe weather and other natural calamities.

Misamis Occidental Rep. Henry Oaminal assures his constituents that with Cayetano in charge, Mindanao will no longer be neglected. The Speaker has been helpful in pushing big-ticket logistics infra projects for the long-neglected island.

With what is probably the highest approval rating ever gained by a leader of the House, Cayetano’s hand is strengthened. It is nearly certain there will be resistance from the majority congressmen to a shortened term for the incumbent Speaker.

They are confident that the very high public approval rate the Speaker enjoys will be understood as appreciation for the effective partnership between the President and the leaders of the legislative chambers. This has political consequences.