Phosphor

In the 1960s we were warned that oil reserves are running out around the end of the millennium. In 2008 scientists predicted the so-called ‘Peak Phosphorus’ for 2030. The discussions provoked considerable concern among farmers, consumers and politicians. With speculation on the stock markets prices skyrocketed temporarily. The specter of a planet-wide famine was painted by the 2012 Sydney Conference on phosphate shortage. In the meantime we know that world reserves last for at least 300 years. No reason to neglect recycling. But how?

Oil and gas are complex chemical compounds. After burning they are gone. Phosphor is an element, it cannot disappear on earth. We can live without gasoline but not without phosphor: It is in all living plants and animals meaning without phosphor there is no life. It is a major component in bones and teeth and as one of three bases of the DNA, it is present in every cell.

As long as agriculture was extensive the natural cycle of phosphor was intact. The extracted nutrient could be replaced by bringing out the excrements of farm and wild animals (guano) and humans. One farmer could nourish four persons. But today one farmer provides food for 150 persons. This is possible through intense and mechanized agriculture. NPK fertilizer or NitroPhosKa comes in sacks in the form of granulate and is spread in the fields with centrifugal distributors. Phosphor content varies between 2% and 16%. Nitrogen and potash (Kalium) contents also vary.

Fertilizer production will not suffice to nourish 9 billion people in 2050. A major problem is that only 14 nations have phosphor deposits.  Morocco has by far the richest reserves with 500,000 mio tons. Followed by China with 37,000 mio tons, Algeria, Syria, Jordan, South Africa, USA and Russia possessing more than 10,000 mio tons. The remaining 6 nations have lesser phosphate reserves.

But only Morocco, Tunis, Algeria, Syria, and Jordan export considerable quantities. The governments of all countries know about their treasure and they keep the reserves for their own populations or practice use. Prices are expected to soar the scarcer the mineral gets. China asks for exorbitant export taxes.

Between 2008 and 2013 production stagnated in almost all countries, Syria and Tunis even reduced it, only China doubled its production.

The big agricultural nations as Canada, Ukraine, Argentina, France, Germany, Poland, and Turkey are dependent on imports. The Asian developing countries are jeopardized for all cereals including rice need elevated quantities of phosphoric fertilizers. Filipinos consume more and more meat, the production of which is based on an excess of plant production.

China may not help ASEAN when world market prices become unaffordable. They will watch us starve while 1.4 billion Chinese thrive. They will take it for the consequence of failing or refusing to control population explosion while Xi Jinping’s one and two-child policy guaranties food security for centuries.

Erich Wannemacher

Lapu-Lapu City