US election effects on PH
The US midterm elections early last week resulted in a Democratic Party majority in the Lower House while the Republicans increased their majority and maintained their hold on the Senate. Since Trump is republican, and his recent appointments have tilted the balance in the Supreme Court with more Republican-leaning conservatives, the Republicans have two and a half of the US government in control. Interestingly and in reality, proportional dominance is neutralized because the Lower House or Congress has greater powers in fiscal/budget proposals, crafting legislations, conducting investigations, and serving as check and balance to the executive department. The structure and powers of the Philippine Congress are similar to the US counterpart as we practically copied them when we got our independence from the US.
Given the above situation, both democrats and republicans can rightfully claim that they won in the last election, but these are the implications: Trump can pursue his initiatives in immigration, healthcare, birthright citizenship, the border wall, gun control, and tax reform, but he will need to get the cooperation of the democratic-controlled congress to get it through. Maybe partly on immigration, tax reform, and gun control there could be a bipartisan solution, but on healthcare and border wall, their positions are quite apart and irreconcilable. The democratic congress can also pursue further the ongoing investigation on the Russian meddling in the 2016 election, subpoena Trump’s tax returns, and investigate the conflict of interest issues of his children. This will further widen the current divide between the Trump conservative supporters and the constituency of the liberal democrats, rural America versus urban America, white supremacists and the minorities, educated young Americans and the older middle-aged Americans, and between the empowered women and the rednecks.
The advances in information and communications technologies that has made the world a global village and the economic dominance of the US makes the US elections affect the whole world. For this discussion we are focusing only on the direct effects on the Philippines as it concerns us the most. Trump will likely not back down on immigration because he has popular support on this issue. So, it will be harder for Filipinos to enter the US as migrants legally or illegally. Family connections or serial migration will surely be curtailed. Birthright citizenship cannot be overturned as it needs a constitutional amendment, but you can be sure there will be lesser expectant mothers admitted as tourists. The rhetoric against minorities may lead to some discrimination against Filipinos in some areas.
US foreign policy on the Philippines is not likely to change as historical and institutional considerations go way back and we are not a major player in the geopolitical arena, except for the South China Sea issue where we are a geographic participant. The democrats and the republicans are on the same wavelength on this as this is military-driven. The economic effects will also be minimal as our trade volume is comfortable for both sides, and the tariff war between the US and China will most likely de-escalate as it is really damaging to both countries.
But there are significant ideological effects of the US elections. The worldwide multi-media coverage of the US elections displayed to the whole world a free and democratic conduct of an election which is not and cannot happen in authoritarian and dictatorial countries. The freedom to criticize, to demonstrate and to vote leaves a lasting impression on all nationalities including Filipinos, on how it is to live in a country where life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness is not hindered but is taken for granted.
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