Plots

Conspiracy theories are difficult to prove. They are even more difficult to disprove. As a consequence, they tend to linger.

The more conspiracy theories crowd the center of public discussion, the more impoverished civic discourse becomes. Instead of building consensus on what might be done to make our shared lives better, we are distracted by intractable claims that can neither be proved nor disproved.

The conspiracy theory of the day concerns an alleged plot to depose President Rodrigo Duterte involving the usual suspects: the communists, the Liberal Party and generic coup plotters inside and outside the military establishment. Military intelligence, from where this theory appears to have emerged, calls this particular plot “Red October.”

Everyone named as participant in this alleged conspiracy have denied involvement. The denials have not been confronted with publicly available evidence.

Spokesmen for the AFP say their information about the alleged plot came from documents captured from communist rebels. The documents have not been declassified. At any rate, that seems to be a vulnerable element in this particular conspiracy theory.

The communists are constantly speaking about imminent upheavals. Doing so keeps the morale of their cadres. It is internally directed propaganda aimed at convincing the movement’s rank-and-file that the light at the end of the tunnel is drawing closer.  People do tire of a “protracted people’s war” that just seems to go on and on infinitely.

Of course the communists want to depose the sitting government. That is all this movement is about. They seek to achieve it by building a “broad united front” that includes fellow travellers of every sort, especially those that might be conveniently disposed off later in the process.

In a word, there is nothing new in the information the communists are establishing links with other anti-Duterte forces. That is their basic business model, so to speak. The question is whether they are any closer to achieving the avowed goal.

The “Red October” conspiracy theory speaks of an orchestrated effort to depose the Duterte government by as early as next month, hence the political project’s name. Every conventional analyst of the balance of forces would readily dismiss such an effort as a delusion – except the administration, apparently.

It was President Duterte himself who disclosed the plot. It was he who spoke of the involvement of active military personnel in it. It was he who seemed to be daring the plotters to go ahead and pull the trigger.

By doing so, the President adds credence to a political project allegedly discovered from the pile of captured communist documents. He might have converted the wishful thinking of communist leaders into a source of national distress.

Improbable

To be sure, President Duterte’s political stock has been significantly diminished. The surveys indicate a substantial drop in his job approval ratings – principally due to public distress over rising costs of basic goods. However, his base of political support remains daunting.

A putsch is not likely. Certainly not in the coming month.

If the conspiracy to overthrow the existing government is composed of communists, members of the Liberal Party and unrepentant remnants of the Oakwood mutiny, there should be no reason to worry. The only thing that binds all three categories of political players is a proven record of political incompetence.

“Red October” is almost like saying the Keystone Cops are out to capture the state.

None of the anti-Duterte personalities and mouthpieces appears to have a clear plan in mind. They speculate endlessly about the President’s health, revealing a wish only natural causes could produce the change in leadership they want. They opportunistically grab every transient issue of the day, such as an elevated inflation rate, to make political hay. They magnify each of the President’s many gaffes and attempt to convert that into a political platform.

The communists, for their part, are the most prolific manufacturers of conspiracy theory. They constantly rant about “creeping tyranny” and accuse Duterte of hatching a dictatorship.

Their propaganda claims, however, run against the grain of Duterte’s style of leadership. The President is plainly rambling through his political term. He hardly strategizes. Each day of his presidency is an improvisation – pretty much like the meandering speeches he delivers.

The Duterte you see is the Duterte you get. He is not an organization man. He has no elaborate institutional plan. He goes through his day moving from one engagement to another with no sense of strategic build-up.

The ruling party is a mess. The PDP-Laban and Sara Duterte’s Hugpong are each assembling separate but overlapping senatorial line-ups. This hardly supports the theory the man is out to perpetuate himself in power.

Do not ask him about what legacy he intends to leave behind. The thought has yet to strike him.

If there is anything he should be faulted for, it is for having only the simplest idea about what government is about: protecting citizens from drugs and corruption, protecting the nation from calamities and protecting our workers from unfair contractual arrangements.

The economic matters Duterte leaves largely to his economic team to worry about. The security matters he leaves to the top military and police officials to attend to. His trade and diplomatic agenda appears to be shaped principally by which country invites him to visit.

There is a reason why Duterte prefers to be called “mayor” instead of “president.” He attends to problems piecemeal as they arise. If he is able to raise the pay of soldiers and policemen, his job is done.