Shift

One year before the midterm elections, there is a dramatic shift happening in Filipino politics. Yet the traditional anti-Duterte politicians appear to be unable to properly appreciate what is going on.

Hours before the President delivered his State of the Nation Address, a rebellion broke out in the House. Pantaleon Alvarez was ousted from his post. In his place, former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was installed.

The matter might have been peaceably settled in the morning, during the working session of the House. A majority of congressmen signed a manifesto, which was basically a vote of no confidence in Alvarez.

The erstwhile Speaker of the House and his minions reacted by cutting short the plenary, shutting down the sound system and hiding the symbolic mace. That resulted in that unseemly ruckus on the floor that caused a delay in the President’s speech.

Alvarez underestimated the degree of discontent in the quality of leadership he exercised over the House. His clumsy attempt to delay the inevitable attests to that.

All previous instances where the Speaker of the House was dislodged were at the dictate of the Palace. This one is different. Alvarez was dislodged by a rebellion of his peers.

There was abundant joy in their faces when the rebellious congressmen took over the Speaker’s podium.

Gloria

After it became clear Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is the new Speaker of the House, her critics were quick to spin the event in their own bizarre ways.

Antonio Trillanes warned this was the beginning of a plot to install Gloria as prime minister. He forgot that the proposed new constitution converts the political system to a federal arrangement, not a parliamentary one.

Grace Poe, whose father lost to Arroyo in the 2004 presidential elections, claims his ghost seemed to have been perturbed by the latest developments at the House. We have no way of verifying that.

The usual voices from the left revived the old allegations against Gloria’s presidency. But all the cases filed against her have been dismissed.

All the insider accounts provided by congressmen involved in ousting Alvarez, however, establish a uniform set of facts.

The ouster move was animated principally by discontent over the manner Alvarez managed the affairs of the House. Gloria was reluctant to become Speaker, considering her delicate medical condition. But she was the only one with sufficient stature to provide an alternative and embolden the rank-and-file solons to take that decisive step to oust the tyrant Alvarez has become.

Any effort to interpret the event without faithfulness to the facts will serve only petty political ends and snow under Alvarez’s failure to lead the chamber fairly and effectively.

True to form, when the responsibility to lead the House was thrust upon her lap, Gloria moved systematically. She consolidated her base of support, assigned tasks and formed a transition committee. But that is how she always has been as a political player: cool and calculating, establishing control when chaos threatens.

It will be unfair to fault her for being competent.

Women

The Sunday before the SONA, some congressmen report receiving calls from Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte Carpio. Those calls were vital in turning the tide against Alvarez.

Although she disavows any plan to seek a higher post, and constantly avoids the limelight, Sara has so clearly blossomed into a major power broker. It is now conceded that her regional political party will call the shots throughout Mindanao and in some of the Cebuano-speaking provinces beyond. No longer will the old boys’ network of the PDP-Laban dictate political outcomes in southernmost regions.

Last Sunday, too, Sara was photographed with Taguig Mayor Lani Cayetano and Quezon City Vice-mayor Joy Belmonte in what was clearly an effort to extend her political reach to the National Capital Region. She will be an important factor in the midterm elections – and an even more important one in 2022.

Ilocos Norte Governor Imee Marcos was not trying to be invisible as she roamed the plenary hall in her bright red dress. Insiders now admit she played a pivotal role in delivering the Northern Luzon congressmen to the side of Gloria at a most critical moment.

The rebellion at the House announces the emergence of a strong alliance between Sara and Imee. A solid Mindanao combined with the traditional Solid North will now be the force to contend with in the coming elections, overshadowing the existing (but weak) political parties.

Cebu’s Gwen Garcia, as Alvarez’ ouster became fait accompli, quickly defected to the side of Gloria. It is likely she will likewise join the Sara-Imee alliance, complementing this political axis with a strong base in the Visayas. She is a smart politician, sensitive to where the wind blows.

We do know that Gloria and her strong Pampanga base is firmly in this emerging alliance.

As Gloria Macapagal Arroyo walked the plenary hall to rally her forces last Monday, it is notable she was constantly surrounded by the congresswomen, resplendent in their SONA gowns. Women power now blossoms in the very bastion of the old boys’ club that dominated our politics for so long.

A decisive axis, powered by strong and independent women politicians, was what the events at the Batasan last Monday really announced. This axis, forming well beyond the patriarchal control of the traditional male powerbrokers, will be influential in the coming elections.

Poor Rodrigo Duterte. He was as confused as the patriarchs surrounding him, while waiting to deliver his speech, about the final significance of what was happening.