Railroading a federal shift will only doom it

No-El,” no election in May 2019, is dead. Malacañang disavows it. The Senate flays it. Any more railroading of constitutional change will also doom federalism.

No-El was stillborn because ill-conceived. It was hailed as the way to shift from present centralized to federalized type, in turn bandied as the cure-all to national woes. Problem is, Filipinos are unsold to federal. Only one in four know about it, and only 39 percent of that 25 percent, or a mere nine percent, wants it. As for No-El, cancelling the election is like scrapping the fiesta. Filipinos would not forgo that three-yearly bash.

No-El was misrepresented as easy. All it supposedly would take, under Article VI, Section 8 of the Constitution, is for Congress to enact the poll cancellation. But other sections fix the terms of senators to six years and congressmen to three. Only constitutional amendment by the people, not congressional law, can extend those terms. Viewed another way, No-El won’t lead to term extension but to term expirations without new legislators. Congress absurdly would be left with only 12 senators.

Senate President Tito Sotto has clarified that. The remaining living authors of the 1987 Constitution affirm that. This week’s all-senator caucus can only do so too. Without Senate concurrence, scrapping elections won’t pass. Ex-Senate President Nene Pimentel, as leader of the consultative body on federal shift, has asked No-El proponents to stand down.

One other fast break threatens federal shift. The House of Reps wants to do it by Constituent Assembly, also publicly repulsive, surveys show. In such CA the House further wants joint voting with the Senate. The supermajority of the 292-member House can and will outvote the 24-seat Senate. That demonizes federalism. What’s in it for congressmen to want to do it by drown-out? If separate voting by the two chambers is needed merely to change a highway name, then why not in a massive revision in government form?

The answer is in the numbers. CA needs three-fourths vote of each chamber. House lemmings comprise more than that. But senators lack the 18. One majority member has moved to the Cabinet, and there are six solid antis. Assuming all the rest would be for federal shift, there’s only 17 of them, or one vote short of the three-fourths.

Federalism would have to wait till after election. But that doesn’t mean Congress should do nothing now. From session resumption on July 23 to candidacy filing in Oct., election campaigning in Feb.-May to bow-out in June, it can explain federal shift to the people. More important, it can demonstrate clean intentions for going federal.

The best way to do that is to outlaw political dynasties once and for all. Thirty-one years since the 1987 constitutional plebiscite, Congress has reneged on that provision. The sharpest argument against federal shift is that it would perpetuate dynastic rule in federalized regions. By forsaking clan interest, however, politicos can dispel sinister, self-serving, hidden agendas. They would gain people’s trust, and give hope in Charter Change.

Sincerity can be shown many other ways. One concerns internal revenue allotment (IRA) to local government units (LGUs). The Supreme Court ruled last week that the “just share” of LGUs’ IRA must come from “all national taxes”, not only from internal revenue collections. That would include Customs duties, excise tax, donors’ tax, estate tax, value-added tax, income tax, and documentary stamps. Giving a larger share to LGUs would begin the long learning transition from unitary to federal devolution. Yet the Cabinet economic team is against it, and wants the Solicitor General to appeal the verdict. Purportedly a bigger IRA to LGUs would deplete funds for big-ticket infrastructure works and negate the country credit standing. Does that mean a Duterte admin dislike of local devolution and federalism after all? Congress can step in by restoring to 40 percent, from the present 25, the IRA slice of the tax pie.

Congress this early also can plot the transition to federal. The shift cannot be instant, but would take five to ten years. Present lawmakers can pass on the study for the new Congress after the May 2019 election to implement – by CA or constitutional convention.

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