War in the South China Sea?
In the last four months the South China Sea has made the front pages of the newspapers and primetime TV news almost every week. The rhetoric from the Philippines, the US, China, Vietnam, and now Australia and other south Asian countries are more and louder. It is also in the social media but sparingly, which means the social media population does not yet believe it will affect their daily lives. In the Philippines the issue is the inaction of the government on the continuous building and militarization of China in the disputed islands and the government's meek and public pronouncement of its inability to confront China. Nobody really expects the Philippines to militarily confront China, but its failure to even assert the UN Tribunal's decision is what riles the critics of the government. The US and China have traded sharper and more accusations and warnings, the most recent, Pentagon Chief and Defense Secretary Mattis, stating that China has weaponized their occupied islands reneging on its 2015 commitment, and the US will retaliate. China, on the other hand have responded that this does not scare them and not all the US, French, British, and Australian naval ships passing through the contested islands will deter their activities.
China is now the second largest economy in the world after the US, and the flexing of its military muscle in the South China Sea is both an extension of its economic power and to secure raw materials to support its still rapidly growing economy. The historical underpinnings of this move are the years when China was conquered and colonized by European countries, Japan, and in a small way by the US. So China believes it is now their time to extend their influence. China has even invested in Africa, South America, and the Middle East, so this is just an extension and in territories that are nearer to China.
To the US, the European countries, Australia, and other Asian countries, China's moves are a threat to their territories and the freedom of navigation in South China Sea. Aside from the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and other Asian countries also have ownership and territorial claims on the islands and surrounding seas. Some $5 trillion worth of goods pass through the South China Sea, and trillions of dollars in marine life and minerals abound in these waters.
It seems opportune for China to make these bold moves as the US and Europe are distracted by the Iran/Israel issue, the Korean peninsula nuclear threat, and the domestic political issues in their home countries. As in Sun Tzu's book "The Art of War," the Chinese would like to get what they want or win this war without firing a single shot. The "war" is already ongoing in terms of propaganda and the media. There is already an ongoing cyberspace war in terms of information and intelligence gathering. These are the drums of war.
The next step in this war would be trade and economic warfare which would restrict the export to and importation of goods from China. The US restriction of critical computer chips to ZTE of China, which almost bankrupted ZTE, is an example. This will be economically bad for the US, but worse for China as it is more export dependent than the US. The rest of the world will also suffer with higher inflation and possible recession. Hopefully this will be the situation that will stop the US and China from escalating into a naval standoff and blockade, or a war with drones.
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