Dangerous deterrence?
I asked what the Philippine delegation would discuss with officials in Hawaii, specifically the US Pacific Command (Pacom). The meeting took place when Chinese H-6K bombers landed on Woody Island. The H-6K is capable of carrying a nuclear bomb. According to the Palace, it is cause for concern, but reiterates China not a threat. The delegation explained to the US Pacom the approach of the Duterte administration. "On the South China Sea (issue), the Philippine delegation underscored that the deliberate and nuanced diplomacy by the Duterte administration had lowered tensions in the region and resulted in clear economic gains for the Philippines in terms of access to marine resources, protection of the marine ecology, and the potential to explore oil and gas resources." In other words, we kept quiet so we could borrow money, receive financial assistance, and be allowed to fish and access areas we could explore for oil and gas, with China's permission and probable partnership, of course. Never mind that all the areas are within our exclusive economic zone.
Despite Duterte's cursing and contempt for America, the United States remains the biggest military ally of the country. The meeting sought to strengthen the relationship and the Mutual Defense Treaty. High-ranking government officials are in Hawaii, but Duterte is not. In a speech in Talisay City where he attended the groundbreaking rites for a housing program for uniformed personnel, this is what the soldiers heard from their commander-in-chief. That despite the friendship and camaraderie they have with the Americans, they should be careful since Americans are not consistent. He also labeled them as bigots. He adds that "the problem with Americans is that they think they are a separate kind from the rest of the world." I guess the Philippine officials say something in front of the Americans, while Duterte says something else in front of the people. Unless of course he is once again taken out of context, and someone will need to explain what he really wanted to say.
As for the incoming chief of Pacom, Admiral Philip Davidson told the US Senate Armed Services Committee that he intends to "recalibrate US force-posture in the Indo-Pacific." That would probably mean more patrols, or freedom of navigation and overflights, if only to stress that it is indeed free to navigate the region. The existing treaties with the Philippines to use its bases may be invoked, if Duterte will allow it. An increased American military presence would serve to "deter Chinese aggression," something Beijing will definitely not take well. At present, China is in a position to defeat any claimant country in the region. The US claims that China has clearly violated past agreements not to militarize the region. But today, China no longer cares what anyone thinks. It only cares about preparing for the "Battle of the South China Sea." If the US pushes through with an increased force-posture, that battle may actually happen. A dangerous deterrence may be brewing in the South China Sea.
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