Major changes averting social volcano eruption

The much written about social volcano that has been simmering for decades is slowly subsiding. This was what an analyst here in DC told me who has been observing the Philippines since the early ’70s. 

After the EDSA People Power revolution in 1986, there was so much hope for significant changes to happen, with Filipinos mistakenly thinking that everything will be set right and the problems that the country was facing would be solved overnight. 

Three decades after EDSA, majority of Filipinos were feeling restless, frustrated that things did not seem to get better, with the promise of EDSA unfulfilled as the income gap between the rich and the poor became even wider, compounded by corruption in government. Slowly, democratic institutions also showed signs of being eroded as seen in the aftermath of EDSA II following the ouster of Joseph Estrada as president when the impeachment process was cut short and “mob rule” – a term used by Time magazine to describe the situation then – prevailed.

In the years since EDSA I, an unprecedented number of Filipinos have left the country in search of better jobs abroad, which is rather ironic considering that the dollar remittances from overseas Filipino workers – with $28.1 billion recorded last year – have been primarily instrumental in keeping our economy afloat and resilient against external shocks such as the 2008 global financial crisis that sent many economies collapsing.

In fact, former president Fidel Ramos (FVR) warned 10 years ago about several “ticking time bombs” that had to be addressed to prevent the situation from escalating, among them corruption and red tape, a broken electoral process, abuses by traditional politicians and a business environment that was slanted to favor the oligarchs. Add to that mix the rising criminality and the worsening peace and order situation – and you have a social volcano just waiting to erupt.   

As summed up by political science professor Richard Heydarian, the people were not feeling the effects of economic inroads because of “cacique democracy,” describing the years after Marcos as “hobbled by a toxic combination of sheer incompetence, cynical neglect and chronic corruption.” 

In the 2016 presidential elections, an overwhelming majority of Filipinos gave their vote to Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte who represented the kind of leader they wanted to see – tough, decisive. And most of all, the people saw him as “one of us” because Duterte displayed an earthy, no-nonsense personality.

Duterte’s election as president gave many Filipinos a voice in the wilderness, in a manner of speaking, with the hope that finally, there is someone who will take care of their needs. The fact is, his victory proved that the era of “name brand” politics was finally over. 

Those belonging to the upper crust of society especially the people who still have difficulty accepting to this day that a little-known mayor can be president, should in reality be grateful that his ascension to the presidency has averted the eruption of the social volcano that has been simmering for years.

Public transport woes are being seriously addressed with the rollout of major infrastructure projects that will enhance connectivity and ease traffic congestion once these rail and road projects are done. The scourge of overseas Filipino workers like the bullet planting or “tanim bala” scam ceased even before President Duterte occupied Malacañang. In truth, OFWs feel that the government is truly looking after their welfare judging from their reactions and comments regarding the situation with Kuwait, despite the fact that the government is having difficulties with the Middle Eastern nation. 

The fact that the president makes powerful individuals pay taxes is also something that has not gone unnoticed, and Filipinos are happy that the corruption that has been going on for years in government is being put under control. It is clear to many that the president does not tolerate corruption on any level, and he is prepared to let go even his close friends who are in the Cabinet if so much as a whiff of corruption is attached to them. 

From day one, Duterte’s agenda to reduce poverty and achieve economic progress has always been straightforward and simple: fight criminality, eradicate the drug menace, establish peace and order, get rid of corruption, and build infrastructure to attract more investment and generate jobs in the process.

I have had deep discussions with analysts here in the US who have been observing the Philippines, and like me, they see that there is great potential for radical and meaningful changes that will benefit ordinary Filipinos. The economy has been robust and booming, displaying the fastest growth in Southeast Asia and the second fastest growth in the world next to India.

Major institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank are optimistic that the Philippines will grow steadily and can reach close to 7 percent growth. Underpinning this impressive growth are the fiscal policy reforms being implemented, with the passage of the first package of the Comprehensive Tax Reform Program or TRAIN ensuring that government has enough funds to support its ambitious “Build, Build, Build” program that in turn will spur investments and generate more jobs. As an ADB official said, the government’s ambitious, P8-trillion infrastructure agenda can help the government achieve its objective to reduce poverty and make economic growth inclusive.

My theory – together with my foreign friends here in Washington, D.C. who are keenly watching the Philippines – is that our country is poised to finally take off and zoom up to its rightful place in the community of prosperous and stable democratic nations.

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