No surprise
Although it may not have come as a surprise, there were those who were hoping otherwise. I'm talking about the statement that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) normally gives at the end of its annual summit, which was held here in the Philippines last week. For the first time in its history, the ASEAN joint statement was issued a day after the formal ending of the summit. Normally the joint statement is issued right before the close of the summit, after the leaders of member nations have their usual "family portrait".
Some are saying that the reason for the delay was because of the disagreement several nations had against not mentioning the UN Permanent Court of Arbitration decision and China's reclamation and militarization of several islands in the region. The PCA decision invalidates China's "Nine Dash Line" claim, practically paving the way for the country and several others with similar disputes to assert rights to exclusive economic zones. Some have said that although China did not participate in this year's summit, their officials were supposedly busy lobbying in Manila to avoid anything being said about the reclamation and militarization, along with the PCA decision. I guess they were successful.
There are four ASEAN member countries with overlapping claims in the South China Sea - Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. But with the Duterte administration clearly warming and cozying up to China, it was apparent that any statement that may ruffle China's feathers would be avoided, not to mention the country was this year's host. Even before the start of the summit, President Duterte made it clear that the sea disputes were a non-issue. It would be interesting to know which countries wanted to mention China's reclamation and militarization, along with the PCA decision in this year's joint statement. It is no secret that Laos and Cambodia are allied with China. What did Myanmar, Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore say, or wanted to say? Were their voices silenced? Overruled? Cast aside or even ignored?
Analysts will surely pick on what transpired, or what didn't in this year's summit. Some are already calling it a huge disappointment, a lost opportunity for the country to take the lead in asserting rights, not sovereignty. It is obvious that ASEAN does not have one strong voice to stand up to China's expansionism and militarization of the region where it actually belongs. It is either too scared, or too indebted to the Asian giant to say anything antagonistic. The longer ASEAN avoids taking a strong stand, the more assertive China will be in claiming everything.
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