Fear-less forecasts

‘Tis the season when seers and fortune-tellers, including feng shui masters come up with their own fearless forecasts. They come up with a prediction of good things, as well as bad things ahead in this new year. But these predictions are more like hit and miss. This is because many of these fortune-telling techniques are based from birth signs to the alignment of the moon and stars.

Unlike many of these unscientific forecasts, economic experts have more or less data-based projections to predict the outlook for the country’s economy. An economics and finance man like Albay Rep. Joey Salceda came up with a list of what he called as “12 economic events will drive optimism in 2017” for the six-month-old administration of President Rodrigo Duterte.

Without citing the basis of his forecasts, Salceda listed the “12 economic events” as follows, with my comments in enclosed parenthesis:

1. Successful ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) chairmanship by the Philippines. (This year’s ASEAN Leaders Summit is taking place here later this year.)

2. Completion and launching of the 2017-2022 Philippine Development Plan (Presumably this is anticipating the economic road map of Duterte’s economic managers.)

3. Approval of Traffic and Congestion Crisis Act, or Emergency Powers (This remains pending at the 17th Congress.)

4. Enactment of Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) resulting in the reduction of personal income taxes of ordinary working families by P156 billion. (This refers to Salceda’s pet bill but which has yet to be certified as “urgent administration bill.”)

5. Implementation of Tax Administration Reform Act, or TARA (This refers to the law approved during the previous administration.)

6. Final Peace Agreement with the National Democratic Front-Comprehensive Agreement on Socio-Economic Reforms, or CASER (This is part of the on-going peace negotiations with the Utrecht-based NDF leaders.)

7. Creation of BangsaMoro Authority by legislation (President Duterte has yet to form the BangsaMoro Transition Commission to draft this legislation.)

8. Beginning of the Golden Era of Transportation: Rapid development of international airports in Puerto Princesa, Daraga, Panglao, start of implementation of Mindanao Railways and NSRP (North-South Railway Project) South Line, and bridges between Matnog and Allen and between Leyte and Surigao. (Rep. Salceda is obviously overly excited over these projects in his home province that were included in the list approved recently by the National Economic Development Authority Board chaired by President Duterte.)

9. Implementation of the 42 Industry Roadmaps, Manufacturing Resurgence Program, SME (small and medium enterprises) in GVC (global value chain) development, and new IPP (Investments Priority Plans) of Duterte administration. (This apparently refers to the wish list of projects drawn up by Duterte economic managers.)

10. Business trophy investments from Japan, including the $25 billion committed by Marubeni and big-ticket infrastructure loans from China. (Rep.Salceda is counting the chicks before they hatch among the private sector business and government-to-government in various memorandums of understanding signed during the state visits of President Duterte.)

11. Submission to Congress of the proposed Federal States of the Philippines and the convening of the Constitutional Assembly (This is the proposed shift to federalism that Duterte allies like Rep. Salceda would carry the ball rolling in the 17th Congress.)

12. Strong leadership and united front – Executive, Legislative, LGUs (local government units) and CSOs (civil society organizations) – against poverty and strategic alliance for global competitiveness. (Rep. Salceda echoed this ardent wish which is definitely shared by all.)

Though he qualifies to be called as a resident economist of the 17th Congress, Salceda’s bold predictions have dashes of politics into it. I may not have the gift of foresight, but I can predict with the same certainty that these events set to happen this year bodes well for the administration of President Duterte.

During his sit-down interviews with various local TV networks last week, President Duterte echoed his bullish outlook for the country’s economy. This, despite controversies that hounded his administration over high incidence of alleged extra-judicial killings related to his administration’s war against illegal drugs.

While he is ready to admit his weakness maybe related to his being foul-mouthed, President Duterte pointed out, it is also his strong point. The President believes his threats against drug lords are “music to the investors” because this addresses their main concern on the peace and order in the country. “As long as the investors do not see my mouth, as long as they earn money here because of my mouth,” the President stressed.

President Duterte cited as best example Kazuo Okada, the Japanese “pachinko king” and gambling mogul whose company put up the $2.4 billion gaming and entertainment complex called Okada Manila Casino by the Manila Bay. “So anong sinabi ng billionaire si Okada? Iyong gambler. O sabi niya, his (Duterte) drive against the drugs…’Good for the country. His mouth...he should… ‘He should,’ he said, ‘Yes, he has the right to be angry,” the President quoted Okada as saying.

The President failed to say though if he has already met and talked with Okada whose casino complex had a soft opening last month.

The Chief Executive exuded not just very strong optimism. He is even extremely confident his administration will be able to take the country to greater heights by the end of his term.

That is if the President will be able to complete his remaining five years and six months of his term.

Amid threats to oust him, the tough-talking former Davao City Mayor makes it clear to all his detractors, critics and foes that he will finish his mission for the country. “I will give them a bloody nose,” President Duterte warned.

It’s not even a veiled threat but the feisty President will not be boxed out of the power picture while he is at Malacanang Palace. That is his fear-less forecast.