The high road to China

BEIJING – I had come to believe that President Rodrigo Duterte has two personalities when he speaks depending on his audience. So his speech last Thursday at the Great Hall of China before Filipino and Chinese businessmen was not expected. We thought he would speak about trade and development and policies he had in mind to push a new cooperation in business venture. He began by telling stories on the difference between Westerners and Orientals. The Orientals are soft spoken even when they disagree with the Westerners who speak with loud voices when they talk or give orders. He told stories of his own experiences with bossy Westerners especially referring to immigration officials who stopped him on his way from Brazil because he did not have a piece of paper that was needed to enter the hub of Los Angeles. As he said. So what? If you do not want me in your country, neither do I want you in mine. From that anecdote he then went on to tell stories as if to say that we should not allow ourselves to be pushed around. He was especially hard on graft and told the audience that they must fight back when corrupt officials do not act on official procedures. He then went back to his anger about foreign groups mostly those who did not even know the seriousness of the drug problem in the Philippines. The drug dealers then use the money to give as campaign to politicians who win in elections because of the dirty money and the crime it proliferates.

By the way BayanKo adviser, Jose Alejandrino, suggested the title for this column. As defined in dictionary high road means “to choose not to do something shady, dishonest, or immoral in a situation in which such an action would give you an advantage over someone else, even if you could get away with it. The phrase refers to the moral “high road.”

That theme was used as the title for the movie  “The High Road to China.”

It is the story of how British traders longed to open relations with China.  So they sent a young Scotsman, George Bogle, as an envoy to Tibet. Bogle became smitten by what he saw there, and struck up a remarkable friendship with the Panchen Lama.

This gripping book tells the story of their two extraordinary journeys across some of the harshest and highest terrain in the world: Bogle's mission, and the Panchen Lama's state visit to China, on which British hopes were hung.“

It is a metaphor for President Duterte to change relations with China and by extension, also the United States for the good of the world.

It will be a long and difficult road but we must do it. I would not apologize for Duterte’s last words on the harangue about graft and criminality, or to explain it away as the difference between divorce and separation. 

At least it was clear that he said “I declare on this venue the Philippines’ separation from the United States.” There were different interpretations of what he said later from some cabinet members and media but I thought it was emphatic enough. It was simpler and more direct. And drew the applause from the crowd.

It is a reversal in foreign policy since the 71-year-old former mayor became president.

“I've realigned myself in the ideological flow and with Russia and China.

“I will also go to Russia to talk to (President Vladimir) Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world – China, Philippines and Russia. It's the only way,” he added.

The President's statement came after several agreements were forged between the two countries. In the shopping list of agreements were tourism cooperation and  cooperation between the Philippine Drug Enforcement and the Narcotrics Control Bureau of China.

Philippine Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said China and the Philippines signed $13.5 billion in deals during Duterte’s state visit. There were signed MOUs on SMEs with China bank officials.

China also lifted an advisory to its citizens against travel to the Philippines.

Bayanko’s adviser Alejandrino said “this foreign policy change will have an impact not only in the Philippines but also for the whole region. Washington, Beijing, Moscow and Tokyo know this and are assessing its consequences.

“China does not want war. Neither does the US. The Chinese have no record of being a warlike nation. They are merchants and traders. But they feel threatened by the US defense arc they believe is aimed at them in the same way that Russia feels threatened by NATO encirclement. Thus the Chinese incursion in the Spratlys. Thus the Russian incursions into Georgia and part of the Ukraine. “Under the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty, the US is not bound to come to the aid of the Philippines in the islets and rocks claimed by the Philippines like Scarborough and Mischief Reef. Nor is the Philippines in a position militarily to enforce by itself the decision of the UN Arbitration Tribunal.

“Instead of quarreling with China, President Duterte is correct in reaching a modus vivendi with Beijing by focusing on confidence-building measures like trade and investments that could eventually lead to the resolution of Scarborough and Mischief Reef issues particularly since the Philippines will no longer be a staging point for bases that China sees as a threat to them. When the threat disappears, Beijing will no longer have a pretext for holding on to Mischief Reef and Scarborough and conceivably could return them,” Alejandrino added.

A neutral Philippines will no longer be a magnet for retaliation in case of a nuclear war by major powers. It will force other countries to reassess their relations vis-a-vis China and the US. Japan won't have a problem since it is economically and militarily able to defend itself. Its only worry will be South Korea which acts as a kind of buffer between China and Japan.

By having closer ties with China and Russia both countries form a kind of insurance to guarantee Philippine neutrality and American non-interference in its internal affairs.

Those Filipinos who lament the end of US protection are essentially the oligarchic class who have relied on that protection to retain their control of power and influence. Without US protection they become vulnerable to being irrelevant. The influx of Chinese investments will change the dynamics of local business by providing stiff competition. That is what the local oligarchs fear most. The Chinese and Russians are sympathetic to Duterte's socialistic vision to bridge the gap between rich and poor, they themselves being former socialists. Duterte's program of change outside and inside the country is a signal the days of the oligarchy are numbered.”