Japan and China: An Asian rivalry

When it looks at the tensions in the West Philippine Sea, the world’s attention is focused on the coming showdown between the United States and China, the two global economic and military superpowers. But there is another country – Japan – whose increasing geopolitical presence in Southeast Asia could actually result in increasing the region’s political stability.

Japan is the third largest economy in the world. It is interested in the disputes in the West Philippine Sea because most of its trade, especially oil, passes through this critical sea lane. Any instability in the area could be disastrous for Japan’s economic survival since it has no natural resources.

Japan has its own territorial disputes with China over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. The Japanese government is closely monitoring the West Philippine Sea because a victory by China in that area could mean that China will duplicate that same strategy of territorial aggression in the East China Sea.

Japan’s geopolitical strategy in the Southeast Asian region seems to be directed at denying China the freedom to unilaterally expand its economic and military influence in the region. Its goal is to restore a more equitable balance of power, especially in the South China Sea, as a means of stopping any more territorial land grabbing and militarization by China.

One crucial key to this strategy is to increase the capability of Southeast Asian navies especially the front line nations like the Philippines and Vietnam. Japan has already concluded a deal for the Philippines to acquire 10 patrol boats which could be used to deter further Chinese incursions into the Spratlys and shoals within eyesight of the Philippine mainland. If the United States decides that protecting Philippine naval vessels is part of the US-Philippine Defense Agreement, as proposed by the US Senate Armed Services Committee, these patrol boats could then be used to protect Philippine fishing boats from continuous harassment by Chinese naval vessels.

Japan is also building its naval capabilities which would give it a much better capability to fight alongside American and other interested parties in the region. This would increase the deterrence factor and, hopefully, discourage China from further territorial aggressions.

In terms of its more aggressive role in Southeast Asia, the biggest political advantage of Japan is that it has no territorial ambitions in the region unlike China. This is the reason why its increased presence in Southeast Asia is not only welcomed but also sought after. Southeast Asian countries, like the Philippines, have actively and openly encouraged Japan to change its pacifist policies and contribute to improving the balance of power in the region as a counter foil to the growing military might of China.

Japan-Philippine ties are growing more rapidly. Aside from the 10 high speed patrol vessels, the Philippines may acquire Japanese P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft which would enhance its ability to monitor activities on its maritime territories and on the disputed shoals. Last year, the Japanese Navy and the Philippine Navy held their first ever joint exercises.

The two governments are also exploring a visiting forces agreement which would give the Japanese navy access to bases in the Philippines. The most logical would be to give Japanese naval vessels access to the same bases earmarked for the American Navy.

Japan also has economic goals for its increased presence in Southeast Asia. The primary goal is to reduce its economic dependence on China. The initial motivation for reducing dependence was the increased animosity between Japan and China and even between its citizens. This motivation has been accelerated by the economic slowdown in China which could have negative effects on the Japanese economy unless there is a diversification of its trade and investments.

The ASEAN region’s growing middle class – from 120 million in 2012 to a projected 400 million by 2020 – is an attractive market for Japanese exporters. Japan also has had an ambitious plan for infrastructure investment in the region which makes it a competitor for China’s own dream of building a “maritime silk road”

China also established an Asian Infrastructure Bank (AIIB) for investment in the region. The United States and some of its allies believe that these Chinese initiatives are really, not just on economic development, but also to expand its economic influence and power in Southeast Asia. While other countries simply protest, Japan has laid out its own infrastructure investment plan in the region. Japan has announced plans to invest in infrastructure development in Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos Thailand and Cambodia. Recently it has announced a plan to construct and finance a $2Billion railway project in the Philippines.

Another development that could bring closer ties between the Philippines and Japan is the recent report that in the last five years, Japan’s population has decreased by one Million people. Another report says that within the next few decades, Japan’s over 65 years of age persons could be anywhere from 30% to 40% of its population. This is an economic disaster in the making unless Japan relaxes its immigration policies. If it does, the principal beneficiary will be the Philippines either through increased outsourcing or sending OFWs to Japan.

The increased presence of Japan in the Southeast Asian region may yet be the tipping point  for the balance of power in this region and force China to reduce its territorial aggression. This may ultimately be the key factor that could actually lead to regional stability.

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