Can ASEAN survive?

The ASEAN is facing its greatest tests and its future could very well be determined by the USA-ASEAN Summit meeting taking place in California today. Several crucial questions may well be answered in this summit.

Can the ASEAN take a united stand on the ongoing geopolitical crisis between China and four of its members in the South China Sea? Can the ASEAN have a united stand on entering a global trade deal especially the proposed Trans Pacific Partnership ( TPP)? Can the ASEAN have a united stand on other global issues like climate change; the threat of global terrorism; and the possibility of another global recession.

This will be the first time the United States will host a USA-ASEAN Summit in the United States. President Obama, now in his last year of office, has always highlighted the importance of dealing with the ASEAN and Southeast Asian countries. This example has been followed by other world powers – China, Russia, Japan, European Union – who have developed their own relationships with the ASEAN. The failure to reach a consensus could lead to a fragmentation of the ASEAN. This could result in the world powers dealing with Southeast Asian countries individually rather than as a group.

For the Philippines and the United States, a critical goal is forging a common front against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. In fact, the Philippines has been pushing for much sharper criticism of Chinese building of artificial islands in that region.

It has been reported that Vietnam and the Philippines, whose disputes with China have led to confrontations, would like to have a communiqué that would contain more detailed reference to the territorial disputes. The Philippines also wants to include the statement that international arbitration should be an option to resolving the conflict with China. Cambodia and Laos, who have very close ties with China, have blocked any attempt to including arbitration in the proposed ASEAN communiqué.

It should be remembered that in the 2012 ASEAN foreign ministers’ summit meeting, Cambodia refused to even have discussions about a shoal dispute between China and the Philippines. Due to an unresolved argument, the summit ended without a joint statement for the first time since the ASEAN was founded in 1967.

The California Summit is also meant to showcase the seriousness of the USA pivot to Asia. This summit comes at a critical time because world attention has been increasingly focused on the violent conflicts in the Middle East. Global attention need to be reminded that Chinese aggression is also cause for global instability.

Obama has been seeking to reassert American leadership as a counter foil to Chinese aggression in Asia. A week ago, US Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes told a press conference: “ The US will be underscoring the importance of resolving any territorial disputes consistent with international norms and international law....and not through bigger nations bullying smaller ones.” This statement was clearly directed to China and its territorial grabbing in the South China Sea.

Last Monday, at the opening of the two day summit, the Trans Pacific Partnership ( TPP) was discussed. This is a free trade agreement, similar to the European Common Market, which will initially have 12 members – United States, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Three ASEAN nations – Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia – have signified their intention to join. China has not joined and is planning to organize their own counterpart – the Regional Cooperative Economic Partnership ( RCEP).

It is in the economic front where American diplomacy might have more success. Since 2009, China has been the ASEAN’s largest trading partner with two way trade totalling $366 billion in 2014. The United States was fourth behind the European Union and Japan. However, the current economic downturn in China’s economy has brought economic crisis to the countries that have depended on exports of commodities to China. Not only has China started reducing imports but the price of commodities has plunged downwards. Indonesia is one economy that has suffered from this China downturn. Fortunately, the Philippine economy is not dependent on commodity exports to China.

The influence of China through its economic muscle is also now taking a beating. Any further weakening of the Chinese currency could  cause further decline in its economic and geopolitical influence. Kyle Bass, who foresaw the subprime crisis in the Philippines and the global economic meltdown recently said: “So many people see China’s $3.3 trillion in reserves, and think they  can burn their foreign exchange to zero, so they have years ahead of them, but they really only have a few months...The IMF stipulates that China needs about $2.7 trillion in foreign exchange just to operate their import-export business. They will hit that number in the next five months.”

The United States is also way ahead of China in direct investments. American companies invested $32.3 billion into Southeast Asia compared with $21.3 billion from China.

The California Summit could decide whether there can still be an integrated ASEAN or whether this association will end up being simply a discussion club without any united voice in determining the affairs of the world.

I can only agree with those who have said that Southeast Asia is really the battleground for the future of Asia.

Personal essay writing class

Your Personal Journey: A Rich Source of Stories on Feb. 28, 2016 (1:30-5:30 pm) at Fully Booked Bonifacio High Street with Neni Sta. Romana Cruz, book author and freelance journalist.  For registration and fee details, 0917-6240196/ [email protected].

After the class, in commemoration of 30 years of the EDSA Revolution, there will be a book signing open to the public of The Aquino Legacy written by Neni Sta. Romana Cruz and myself. The book is available in all Fully Booked outlets.

Email: [email protected]