The homestretch

It won’t be long before President Aquino reverts to being Citizen Noynoy. Then he will have more than enough time to drive all the fast cars he wants, date a new girl every three months and indulge in target shooting.

If President Noynoy didn’t have to bear on his shoulders the full weight of getting his anointed successor elected, he should just be cruising along into the homestretch of his six years, with his personal legacy secured.

P-Noy’s had some hits and misses – but which president didn’t? Among the hits: the nation has held on to its investment grade, and the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong. He got the excise tax reforms passed. Some infrastructure projects may be finished by June. The Supreme Court has given the green light for the implementation of the 2012 Reproductive Health law. For about a decade, enactment of the RH law seemed impossible.

Although a deep distrust of lawmakers made P-Noy resist every effort to amend restrictive economic provisions of the Constitution, he managed to enact an anti-trust measure and amend the cabotage law to promote a more level playing field in business.

Economic growth has been sustained. There is a perception that P-Noy’s supporters have been the main beneficiaries, with inclusive growth elusive. But a development expert prefers to look on the bright side, pointing out that before inclusive growth can be possible, you need growth.

Spending has been up since 2010 on public health, education and infrastructure, the expert pointed out. Macroeconomic fundamentals have been so stable the country representative of the International Monetary Fund has a lot of time to play golf, the expert joked.

It looks like P-Noy, like his late mother, has managed to keep his nose clean, although several of his close advisers could end up being held without bail for serious offenses once he’s no longer in power. P-Noy himself may be held liable for looking the other way, which is an act of omission.

Red tape, corruption and inefficiency also persist throughout the lower levels of government, driving away investments, killing entrepreneurship, and making ordinary Pinoys laugh at the daang matuwid spiel.

These are among the misses under P-Noy, which may no longer be corrected in the homestretch.

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The Supreme Court ruled that those behind the Disbursement Acceleration Program (DAP), which the SC declared unconstitutional, could be held liable. Its older cousin, the congressional pork barrel or Priority Development Assistance Program (PDAF), was also declared unconstitutional.

The PDAF and DAP were crucial tools for Malacañang in winning congressional support not only for controversial legislation such as the RH law but also in the impeachment of Renato Corona as chief justice and Merceditas Gutierrez as ombudsman. The downside for P-Noy: putting his own appointees as heads of the SC and the Office of the Ombudsman put the spotlight on the DAP, leading to its invalidation.

The loss of such persuasive tools is contributing to P-Noy’s failure to get Congress to pass even a mangled version of the Bangsamoro Basic Law. The bigger reason, of course, is the event that made 2015 a memorably bad year for P-Noy: the slaughter of 44 police Special Action Force (SAF) commandos on Jan. 25 in Mamasapano, Maguindanao.

Mamasapano ruined P-Noy’s hope for a peace legacy and exposed his naturally abysmal lack of empathy, despite his belated efforts to undo the damage. The slaughter cost him the peace process as well as his favorite cop, Alan Purisima. Allowing a suspended cop to run the operation may open P-Noy to a lawsuit once he loses his immunity.

In his final six months in power, high on P-Noy’s to-do list is how to save the peace process with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which has not turned over any of its members responsible for the slaughter or returned the personal belongings looted from the SAF 44.

The peace process isn’t going to die with P-Noy’s departure. Every president wants to tout a peace process; merely negotiating already promotes peace. But P-Noy, naturally, would wish to claim a peace legacy. He has a rocky path ahead.

The first anniversary of the Mamasapano slaughter is at the end of the month, with justice uncertain for the SAF 44. I’m not sure if lawmakers, most of whom are running for re-election or other posts in May, are prepared to pass a Bangsamoro measure before the anniversary. Even if Congress manages to pass some version of the Bangsamoro law, no one can tell if it will be accepted by the MILF. This is not what the MILF presented to its members; the rebel leadership needs credibility to sell a peace deal to its constituents. Already MILF leaders must contend with unhappy members joining their partner in Mamasapano, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters.

Meanwhile, the mangled law is expected to go to the Supreme Court, where the administration has had a mixed batting average. In case the SC upholds the mangled version and all appeals are exhausted, the law goes to the people for a plebiscite. At this point, it doesn’t look like the plebiscite can be held together with the general elections in May.

The best that P-Noy can do, in laying claim to a peace legacy, is to say that he tried.

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In his final six months, he may also want to seal his personal anti-corruption credentials by ensuring that his campaign is non-partisan.

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada, who visited our office after Christmas, is not the only one who believes daang matuwid is engaged in selective justice and persecution of political opponents.

Mayor Erap is still waiting for a member of the ruling Liberal Party (or any other official for that matter) to be ousted for overspending during the 2013 campaign, like his nephew, former Laguna governor Emilio Ramon Ejercito.

Erap is also waiting for a member of the ruling coalition to be held without bail for the PDAF scam, like his son Jinggoy and Sen. Bong Revilla Jr., who at one point had nurtured hopes of running for president.

It would also help if someone would be held without bail for plunder, not just simple graft, for the scandalous mismanagement of the Metro Rail Transit 3. But this could focus attention on the new P3.8-billion MRT maintenance deal awarded without public bidding to a lucky consortium two days before Christmas. Transport officials said the negotiated procurement was given the green light by the National Economic and Development Authority, which is chaired by who else but P-Noy.

Even the straight path legacy is endangered. There’s still time for P-Noy to straighten things up.