Frontrunner

Vice President Jejomar Binay is back in that old, familiar place: leading the pack in the race to become the nation’s next president.

The latest Pulse Asia voter preference survey put Binay solidly 10 points ahead of runner-up Rodrigo Duterte. Grace Poe, recently disqualified by the Comelec ranks third, although hers looks like a beleaguered candidacy.

In the SWS poll, conducted over the same period, Binay and Poe are tied for the lead. Each enjoyed a 26% share of the popular vote. On the same day the SWS survey was released, word leaked the poll body rejected Poe’s motion for reconsideration.

Those who observed the Binay campaign closely are not surprised he is back in the lead. The Vice President defied the years, campaigning tirelessly at the grassroots. It is a man-to-man, house-to-house campaign that none of his rivals can match.

The Binay campaign relies heavily on building strong emotional bonds between voters and the candidate. Those bonds cannot be formed by a campaign reliant on expensive political advertising – the “air war” in the jargon of political strategists.

This is a “ground war” mainly, amplifying Binay’s talent for establishing rapport with the ordinary folk. He does not breeze through towns, waving at crowds from a motorcade. He sits and listens to the most ordinary people, conversing on the most ordinary problems. The subtext here is a leader who listens to his citizens.

Over the last year-and-a-half, those who wanted to destroy Binay threw even the proverbial kitchen sink at him. His base, however, stood by the man.

Studies show that Binay voters are the least like to abandon their candidate. Binay is likewise the candidate most likely to benefit from migrating voters from the Poe and Duterte camp should more roadblocks be put up to abort their candidacies.

The most recent Laylo polling study confirms what was hypothesized in this space a few weeks ago: the LP effort at “killing” rival candidacies will likely backfire. Voters for candidates targeted for disenfranchisement will not go for Mar Roxas. Most of them will go for Binay, creating a super-candidate.

Through thick and thin, the Binay base vote of about a quarter of the total held firm. This is a base constituency tested by a severe trial by ordeal – and made stronger by that.

Binay’s strongest support comes from the underclasses. They see in him the possibility of a government that truly cares for the poor and the weak. They are attracted as much by the accomplishments of the city he governed for decades as by his record as human rights lawyer fighting oppression.

Several business groups also support Binay. They see in him an indefatigable work ethic, a practical mind sharpened by years as a local executive and a managerial ability to get things done. The way he runs his campaign is itself a testimony to a man willing to work hard and keep a tight rein on things.

Binay promised a government run by technocrats rather than politicians. That should diminish the propensity of government to kowtow to the oligarchs. It should pave the way towards the modernization of our systems of governance.

None of his rivals even approximate Binay’s track record for executive ability and decisiveness. Those who might seem decisive have not managed large organizations. Those who might claim executive ability have a thin record of achievement and a thick record of indecisiveness.

It also helps that Binay effectively began working to be president many years ago, when he was Makati mayor.

As mayor of the country’s premier business center, Binay set up hundreds of sisterhood arrangements with hundreds of towns and cities nationwide. Local governments know he understands their problems and will be a helpful president.

One can only imagine how long Binay’s list of contacts might be. He seems to be organized down to the barangay level. It seems he has summoned an army of friends and acquaintances to push his candidacy forward. That is how he managed to surprise the erstwhile frontrunners in the 2010 elections – Mar Roxas foremost among them.

The worst Binay’s political rivals could do is to underestimate the man. Those who did so in 2010 paid dearly for the miscalculation.

Those who tried to destroy Binay by means of a sustained smear campaign clearly underestimated the man. The man thrives on challenges. The poverty of his childhood and the peril of being at the frontline of the struggle against the dictatorship supplied the man with grit and forbearance. His first response to difficulty is simply to work a lot harder.

Over the last few months, while his rivals challenged each other to bitch-slapping bouts or indulged in political sniping, Binay busied himself reinforcing the trenches. The battle for the presidency, he understands fully well, will not be settled by smart sound bites or verbal aggression. We are looking at a grinding battle, against foes with superior war chests, that will in the end be decided by those whose troops are better entrenched.   

During a recent radio interview, senatorial candidate Panfilo Lacson opined that Binay is the best option for the nation. Many will readily agree. He will work on a well-studied strategy and assemble a competent team to execute it. That is how he has always been.

Rodrigo Duterte, in another interview, said that should he win, his heart will bleed for Binay – because the man has invested years preparing for this contest. Should he be disqualified from running, Duterte also said, he will throw his full support behind the Binay candidacy.

Let us see over the next couple of months how Binay will hold his lead.