Why Miriam is running, and Digong is not?
Motivation is a major reason in understanding human behavior, that's why we had an earlier article on why people run for elective positions. Self-interest is a primary motive and economic self- interest is dominant, but not all and only, since altruistic or public good motives also promotes or leads to self-interest. Now we want to zero in on, what drives Miriam Santiago to run for President and why Rodrigo Duterte is not running for President.
Miriam Defensor Santiago was a bright, articulate and a standout at the UP College of Law who graduated with Honors. She had post graduate degrees in the US and had international work experience before being appointed as an RTC judge in Metro Manila while teaching at the UP Law. I used to regularly read her highly regarded and popular column in a weekly magazine, as it was an intelligent and a highly informative column. Her talent was appreciated that she was appointed as Immigration Commissioner, and subsequently as Secretary of the Department of Agrarian Reform. She was elected as senator and ran for president, but was defeated by the then president Fidel Ramos who was the anointed candidate of Cory Aquino. She ran again for Senator and was easily elected. Up to this point in her career she was a gutsy popular senator and vote getter. In the presidential terms of Estrada and Arroyo, her popularity suffered when she started to have inconsistent and ambivalent positions on some issues and loyalties to these two presidents, which did not sit well with the public. She had been politicized by traditional politics and was taking convenient stands on issues. She revived her popularity when she took on then senate president Juan Ponce Enrile and some of the other senators on corruption issues and took to writing some light-hearted books. But then she got sick, initially thought as chronic fatigue syndrome, but turned out to be stage 4 cancer. At this crossroad, she decides she will run for president in the 2016 elections.
Given her sickness, Miriam will not have the physical ability to mount a nationwide campaign, so her campaign will rely mainly on mass media and the social media. It may cost less than a total organized party campaign, but it will still cost some, so that is where Marcos comes in handy. This is ironic since one of the highlights of Miriam's career was her decision as a judge to let the Ateneo and UP students that were arrested during martial law for demonstrating against the extravagance of Imelda Marcos, to post bail and stay out of prison. This is also an example of her inconsistent and shifting ideology and morality. A cost-benefit analysis of her running for presidency however will show, that there is really more benefit than cost to her running. She is ending her term as senator, the cost of her campaign can be covered by contributions, and she will continue to be in the public consciousness and limelight. For her, not winning will not be a disaster, but a grand exit to her career and life.
Rodrigo Duterte is a small town boy, born in Leyte whose parents originally lived in Danao, Cebu, but later transferred to Davao City. He graduated with a law degree from San Beda College, passed the Bar and worked as a government lawyer in Davao City. He entered politics, and has been mayor of Davao City for 22 years, aside from one term as vice-mayor and another term as congressman of the city. He has been undefeated in any of the positions he had sought and will probably win handily as mayor of Davao City this 2016.
In all, Digong has been in the government service for more than 40 years. He gained popularity and notoriety as a no nonsense Mayor who enforces the law to all, while running a peaceful and clean city. Criticized for possible human rights violations and extra-judicial punishments, he has appealed to voters who are fed up with lawlessness and traditional politics. His bravado and colorful personality, including his love life, are table fare and gets the admiration of a sector in Philippine society. But is this enough to win a presidential election? If seems it is not, and Duterte, a seasoned politician who never lost in an election will not run for the presidency without a fighting chance of winning. At 71 years, he is not sick of any major ailment, except for a backache due to a slipped disk caused by a motorcycle accident, and can do the hasting of the nationwide campaign. Still he has to be convinced that he has a good chance of winning, and this will not happen if he is not assured of the financial and logistical support needed to win a presidential election. There is a 90 percent probability that Digong will not run for president, even if he gave a December 10 deadline to make a final decision.
Duterte will run to win, while Santiago is running even if she believes she will lose. That is the difference.
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