The charade begins
The United States finally made good an earlier promise to test the territorial claim of China over the whole of the South China Sea by sending the USS Lassen, a guided missile destroyer, to within 12 nautical miles of one of the man-made islands that China has been building in the area. This naturally riled China. But beyond saying it repeatedly warned the US warship and followed it for the duration of the sail-through, China did nothing to provoke a real confrontation.
So, did the United States win Round One in its face-off with China in the South China Sea? Not necessarily. The sail-through did not really mean anything over and above the battle of words. When the US announced it would sail through the South China Sea and China responded by warning the US not to, and the US sailed through anyway and China said it never allowed the US ship out of its sight -- both countries got what all their rhetoric sought to achieve.
What the sail-through did not achieve was compel China to stop doing what it is currently doing -- stop all reclamation and building of new islands in the contested territories and constructing buildings and airfields on them. The Chinese physical activities on these islands is tantamount to a de facto annexation of contested territories that the sail-through by the USS Lassen did not really address.
From its pronouncements, it has been very clear that what the US wants in the area is merely freedom of navigation, where it has a huge stake considering the trillions of dollars in trade that flow through these vital sealanes each year. That is the real American concern in this area of conflict. It has never been about helping prop up the Philippine claim to some of the islands, although it is in its political interests to continue pretending to do so.
China's annexation of some of the contested islands, including those that clearly belong to the Philippines, already constituted a belligerent act for which the Philippines simply has no response. If the US truly had the resolve to come to the aid of one of its oldest allies in the region, it could have swiftly sent its ships, even on mere sail-through missions, long before China even had the chance to begin building.
But nothing of the sort happened. So while China, with increasing gumption, began building swiftly on the islands that it had seized, all that the United States did was keep the Philippines entertained with promises of lasting companionship. That's right, companionship. All that the US promised the Philippines was that it would never abandon an old friend.
Well, that made two close companions looking helplessly as China went ahead with its construction and reclamation. Eventually though, it became embarrassing for the world's greatest power to just keep watching. And so it began talking about sailing through the area. But all that talking really had a purpose. It wanted to sound out China. When China responded in kind with similar tough talk, the US knew China will do nothing foolish.
It would have been a tougher nut to crack for American planners if China kept mum about the advertised US plans. America would not want to second-guess what China would do. But because China acknowledged the US plans and responded in kind, the US knew China would play along. Without saying so, both countries agreed to act and talk tough, but without really changing the status quo.
And so the charade has begun. The US will sail warships through the area, which China has not really closed anyway, and China will shadow the warships until they have sailed through. Precious world trade will continue safely through. As the second biggest economy, it is also in China's interest as much as it is America's to keep the trade going. Just don't mess with the islands, which the US has really no plan of doing.
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