Businessmen invariably fuss over Elections 2016. Some worry about government trade-policy discontinuity, others about sure winners to whom to give campaign (protection) money. All wishing to predict outcomes, they pester for fearless forecasts journalists whom they presume to know the lurid decisive details.
Problems is, journalists never predict anything till it happens. Left to themselves, businessmen might as well play political scenarists. One way is to plot – from clues in, say, news reports or candidates’ habits and reactions – the worst events that could happen to each, then evaluate the likely survivor due to a fortuitous factor. Like, with the “presidentiables,” assume that:
• More and more stinks reek out of the bumbling Admin, to enrage voters against the standard bearer of “Daang Di Pala Matuwid”;
• The main Opposition bet, despite his immunity from suit as VP, goes to jail on non-bailable criminal charges;
• The most popular contender is disqualified from elective office;
• The emotional back-out of the promising tough talker does not elicit a groundswell of sympathy to incite campaign donations.
Now factor in the Filipino penchant to go for the underdog. Also, the likelihood that the PCOS inaccuracy will worsen, as is the trend from 2010 to 2013.
There you have it.
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Now Commander-in-Chief Noynoy Aquino affirms that the SAF did heroically take down international terrorist Marwan in Mamasapano last Jan. 25. What brought about his change of heart? Could it be the potential disastrous effects on the candidacy of his anointed successor Mar Roxas, whom the electorate is judging by every act of the Admin, since P-Noy and Mar advertise themselves to be one and the same?
Only days ago P-Noy had created a storm in letting out to newsmen that he was looking into an “alternative truth” about the events surrounding the massacre of the SAF-44. At once police generals decried his casting of doubts on their men’s giving up of lives, not to forget the career setbacks that the Board of Inquiry members risked to ensure a comprehensive, truthful report. Further infuriating the public was the hated alias Mohagher Iqbal, chief negotiator of the separatist MILF, grabbing the chance to propagandize “the only truth” about Mamasapano. That is, that Marwan’s bodyguards by themselves had killed him well before the SAF raiders arrived at the hideout. That set off new recollections of P-Noy snubbing the arrival honors for the SAF-44’s remains at their headquarters, the non-mention of their deeds during his final State of the Nation last July, and the removal from the National Police Academy grounds of a mural in their honor, reportedly on his orders. In these days of early politicking, those surely would reflect on Roxas, as then-Interior Secretary in charge of the SAF, the BOI, and all other police matters. Hence, for Roxas’ sake, P-Noy’s somersault back to the official report on the SAF’s successful neutralizing of their quarry, marred in exfiltration, however, by bungling superiors.
Still, what must P-Noy have been thinking, in resurrecting during an unguarded moment with prying newsmen, the painful memories of the nation and the bereaved families? Is he so conscience-stricken about the massacre of the commandos, that he will take it to his grave for they operated directly on his orders? Or is he morbidly afraid of criminal and civil raps to be filed against him, as the “most responsible official” for it? Whichever, it was bothersome enough to make him entertain a soothing “alternative truth,” as a way out of the mess.
But if there’s one item left unexplained by P-Noy about Mamasapano, it’s that Americans were involved.
The Senate and the PNP inquiries confirmed it. Army and police officers swore there were six Caucasian Americans in civvies at the SAF command post in the police station outside Mamasapano. SAF Gen. Getulio Napeñas also helicoptered to the Army brigade headquarters with them. There Army 6th Infantry Division Maj. Gen. Edmundo Pangilinan had an argument with them about being in charge of the artillery and light armor. Napeñas identified one of the six as Al Latz, who supposedly had trained the SAF’s 84th Special Action Company, the Seaborne that assaulted Marwan’s hut. In the field that fateful day, the Americans provided surveillance equipment support.
Relatedly, however, there were reports of at least one American fatality in the fighting. The human rights group Suara Bangsamoro quoted a farmer in Barrio Tukanalipao to have touched the Caucasian’s aquiline nose while helping load corpses onto two Bell-214 ST (Super Transport) choppers. The helicopters were painted light green, said to be operating in Mindanao under Evergreen Co. That firm is known to be a contractor of the US Central Intelligence Agency.
Should not P-Noy talk about that “alternative truth” instead – especially in light of reports that US security operatives have since pulled out in disgust, with all the training and surveillance equipment previously being lent-for-giveaway to ill-equipped Filipino counterparts?
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