Binay will find it difficult to win in Cebu come 2016

Assuming that Mar Roxas and Grace Poe are both running against Vice President Binay, the big block of the Cebuano vote, about 2.5 million of them, will be contested mainly by Secretary Mar and Senator Grace. Vice President Jejomar Binay will have a difficulty getting even one-fourth of the whole Cebu electorate. This is also assuming that Mar Roxas will be supported strongly by both Tom OsmeÒa, Serge OsmeÒa, Junjun Davide, and the LP leaders including Congressmen Willy Caminero of the second district and Quisumbing in the sixth. Mar is strong in both the cities and province of Cebu. We also assume that Grace Poe will be the candidate of the Garcias, Gwen of the third, and all the other Garcias, including Winston who is running for governor.

The LP forces in Cebu are quite formidable. Cebu City is predicted to go 50 per cent Roxas in 2016, 35 per cent Grace and only 15 per cent Binay. The other day, President Aquino met with friends at the Cebu Coliseum and the crowd was quite impressive. Grace Poe was in USC with only students cheering her. Binay was in Toledo and Talisay. In 2010, Mar Roxas got more than a million votes in Cebu, for his vice presidential bid, even more than the vote of President Noy himself who got 980,000 votes. In that election, Binay only got about 400,000 votes in Cebu.

The vice president admitted that indeed, Cebu is a weak spot for him. He relies heavily on the support of Mayor Mike Rama. But our analysis is that not all who will carry Rama will vote for Binay.

We do not want to second guess the Gullases but the emerging scenarios seem to point out to the probability that Eddiegul and his grandson will go either for Mar or for Grace, rather than for Jojo Binay. If we are right, then the vote-rich first district will most probably go 60 percent Roxas and 40% Grace. The second district will go 80% per cent for Mar Roxas and 10 per cent for Grace and 10 % per cent for Binay. The third district, with the support of the Garcias, will go 60 per cent for Grace, 30 per cent for Mar Roxas and 10 per cent for Binay. The fourth will be a toss-up between Mar and Grace, and Binay will be far behind. Mar Roxas will be definitely stronger than Binay in both the north and the south of Cebu. Mar will dominate the cities and the big towns. Binay may do well in the outlying areas.

The fifth district will go for Mar Roxas, with some 60 per cent votes and with Grace and Jojo Binay expected to have 20 per cent each. The sixth will go to Mar by a big margin. The new seventh district may be hotly contested between Grace supported by the Garcias and Roxas to be helped by the supporters of Governor Davide. If Grace Poe will ultimately decide to run as the vice presidential candidate instead of going for the presidency, that scenario will even favor Mar Roxas much more. Roxas is identified with the Visayans while Binay is from the north. The big urban centers like Cebu, Mandaue, Lapulapu, Talisay, Carcar, Toledo, Danao and Bogo will tend to go for Roxas. I do not know where Binay will hope to win.

The people from the Visayas and Mindanao, especially the Cebuanos and the Ilonggos, have a strong emotional reasons to favor Roxas rather than Binay. The last seven presidents of the republic were all from Luzon, Macapagal, Marcos, Cory Aquino, FVR, Erap, GMA, and PNoy. It is time for the Visayans to claim MalacaÒan after presidents Sergio OsmeÒa Sr, Manuel A. Roxas, and Carlos P Garcia. It is now time for the south to send one of its own to MalacaÒan. We have waited for so long and it is time for us to claim the limelight from imperial Luzon. Mar Roxas should choose a vice president who can balance the ticket and assure a complete victory for the team.

If Grace does not accept the vice presidential candidacy, then Mar can tap Senator Alan Cayetano or Ralph Recto, or even (and this is the best for the Cebuano), our very own Senator Serge OsmeÒa. That would be a repeat of the ROXAS-OSME—A team-up. Instead an Os-Rox or OsmeÒa-Roxas, it shall be a Rox-Os or Roxas-OsmeÒa tandem. But the problem is they come from the same region. It will not be a balanced ticket. Whatever it is and regardless of his vice president, Mar Roxas will win in Cebu, and Binay will be far behind. Even if Grace Poe will join the fray. Mark my word. Cebu will show the whole nation how to best choose a true leader.