The state of the nation's political parties
The great difference between the politics in our country and that of the United States, and those in Great Britain, Australia, Canada, and even Malaysia and Indonesia, is that here in the Philippines, there is no strong and stable party system. It used to be stable during the years of the Liberal Party and the Nacionalista Party. It was very clear then that President Manuel Roxas was LP and Sergio Osmeña Sr. was NP, as Ramon Magsaysay and Carlos P. Garcia belonged to NP and Elpidio Quirino and Diosdado Macapagal to LP. Here in Cebu, Serging Osmeña was Liberal, the Duranos, Kintanars and Calderons NP. Cebu City was LP and Cebu province was NP most of the times then.
In the US, one is either a Republican or a Democrat. And the ideological moorings are clear and distinct. The Republicans are pro-business and are against high taxes and too much social welfare. The Democrats are pro-labor, pro-immigrant, pro-poor. They collect more taxes because they give away more social welfare benefits, more opportunities for accessible health and education opportunities. And they help the seniors, the veterans and the LGBT. In Britain, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, it is always a contest between the Liberals or Labor party and the Conservatives. Here, there is no ideology, no principle. Any candidate can form a coalition, then register it as a party.
In our country, the stable years of the LP and the NP no longer hold true. President Marcos changed it all. He was Liberal until he changed affiliation and became NP's standard bearer in 1965, stealing the presidency from Fernando Lopez and Emmanuel Pelaez. Then, as president, he declared Martial Law and created the KBL or Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, which marginalized the LP and the NP. The old political families joined the KBL if not for ideology, only for survival. Here in Cebu, the Duranos, the Garcias, the Kintanars and the Gullases joined the KBL. The progressives founded the Pusyon Bisaya. From there, we had very idealistic young leaders like Marcelo Fernan, Hilario Davide Jr. and Filemon Fernandez. Even Fr. George Kintanar became a Batasan Pambansa assemblyman.
What is the current state of the LP and the NP? Well, they are together under the same administration coalition. But it dawns on me now that, contrary to the general impression being peddled by the administration, the LP is not that strong. It does not have the determination to stick with Mar Roxas, its most loyal adherent, whose grandfather founded the party and whose father was a defeated vice presidential bet, just like himself. It has to search for more winnable option like a non-LP Grace Poe. The NP is nothing but the Villars and the Cayetanos. Nothing but Las Piñas and Taguig. Grace and Chiz are poised to run as independent. This spoiler team will only make it easier for Binay to win. Or even Duterte.
If we really think about the whole thing, the opposition is getting stronger because, despite the massive demolition blitzkrieg against Vice President Binay, the support base for UNA has remained loyal to him. In fact, it is expanding. Danding Cojuangco's NPC (National Peoples' Coalition) is supporting Binay. They are fielding in a Cojuangco to run for Pangasinan governor, and every week, the Cojuangcos and the Binays are teaming up in a series of political sorties in the north. If Bongbong Marcos and the Romualdezes in Leyte will stick with Binay, then the LP and PNoy should say goodbye to Malacañang. Mindanao will go Duterte, and Luzon will be divided. Roxas will not be sure of the Visayas.
Above all, three biggest cities at least are in the hands of the opposition, namely Manila, Cebu and Makati. Also not voting LP is the solid north of the Ilocandia, Cagayan de Oro and Caloocan, Paranaque and San Juan. Cavite is a Remulla and Revilla country. Laguna is Ejercito turf. Rizal is Ynares, and Bulacan is opposition.
The party system is dead. It is a matter of personalities. And the administration bet will have a very, very hard time to make it. It is LP that is panicking and is very unsure of its next moves. The President is having sleepless nights. My Malacañang informer is very, very sure of his facts. You better believe me. It showed when he delivered his SONA.
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