Does he mean it?

“Kung handa kayong makipag-usap nang sinsero, bukas ang estado sa isang risonable at tapat na diyalogo. Pero kung patuloy ninyong ilalagay sa peligro ang sambayanan, hindi kami mag-aatubiling sagasaan kayo.”

(If you are ready to talk sincerely, the State is open to reasonable and truthful dialogue. But if you continue to put the country in danger, we will not hesitate to crush you). President Aquino III said this at the Philippine Military Academy graduation rites last March 15.

There are two parts to the question. The first part is about the culpability of the President in the Mamasapano massacre and the second part is what happens after he leaves office whether he is forcibly removed or made to resign on his own volition. 

For the moment the debate has been focused on his culpability – whether his acts come under command responsibility and whether this makes him liable for the deaths of the 44 SAF men.

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For many, the issue of what comes after Aquino is just as important. Although his relatives and followers grant that his presidency has been disastrous, they want a “business as usual.”

Bayanko and its partners hold fast to its objective that succession must make way for a new beginning in our political and economic life. It is accepted universally that the country’s problems arise from bad politics and governance that continues to widen the gap between the rich and the poor. It is only a question of time when the situation could explode into violence that will claim many deaths and inevitably destroy the country. Yet it has not been given enough attention.  It is obvious that dynasty will live on with alliances being formed by the Aquinos, Cojuangcos and (I daresay also the Marcoses) rallying behind Binay despite the plunder cases against him.

For those wishfully hoping for a military coup, Bayanko has said there is no danger of a military coup. Any coup attempt will be condemned by the US and the European Union. It will lead to the immediate cutoff of all economic and military assistance to the Philippines.

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On the other hand, Bayanko seeks to encourage and make possible first part of what the president said at the PMA rites. Unlike other movements, we have not called for his resignation because we want to keep the door open to dialogue. We welcomed his speech at the PMA if he truly means it. We have said so publicly, and through our back channel to the president. We seek a peaceful and orderly transition to a new constitutional order. This is also the stance of the federations and groups that have partnered with us.

The alternative to dialogue is too frightening to contemplate.

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Some businessmen think that the way to go is to support Vice-President Jejomar Binay. That only means going back to square 1 and the problems of corruption and a defective system of elections will be back with a vengeance. There will be no change. Businessmen who think that this is the way to go are being shortsighted.

With Binay as president we are back to the graft and corruption so endemic in a system with an all-powerful president who will use government to further enrich himself. His relatives are already in place in lucrative positions in government.

No amount of promise or resolve can make up for the deficiencies of a system that coddles graft and corruption to enrich the few and impoverish the many. There may be order and euphoria at the start of a new administration under Binay but it will not be for long and we will be back in the same situation we were at the end of the Aquino government or worse. We can expect a violent revolution that will sweep all the businesses away. On the contrary, expect it to become worse as poverty grows not only with the masa but with the dwindling middle class as well.

Is there an Aquino exit plan and a Malacanang plot against Binay??Any president under siege always prepares an exit plan says Bayanko adviser Jose Alejandrino.

“ What it is will be determined by a successor who can provide most protection. In Noynoy’s case, who would that be?? Here is the predicament. Noynoy is inclined towards Mar Roxas but Mar’s chance of winning the presidency is as remote as Noynoy’s going to the moon. On the other side, he is being pressured by members of his family – Danding, Peping, Tingting, his sisters – to support Binay whom they already endorsed.? Mar knows to have a crack at the presidency he has to eliminate Binay. The moves against Jun Jun are meant to send a signal. But it is more a plot hatched by Mar’s supporters in the Palace than a Noynoy plot.

The president is keeping his options open which is a wise move.? For his part, Binay would of course like to have Noynoy’s blessing even though some of his advisers think such blessing may be more of a liability given the president’s falling popularity. The moves against his son Jun Jun could well persuade Jojo to make the final break.?If Mar succeeds in knocking Binay out before the deadline for the filing of candidacies, then he remains in the race. It remains his only way to have a crack at the presidency.“

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Bayanko remains determined that the country change to a new order with a new Constitution. Alejandrino has prepared a proposed new Constitution to be submitted to CJ Puno and his panel to start the ball rolling that would bring in the marginal sectors mainly through organized labor federations but will continue to welcome sectors of society who are equally dissatisfied with the old order of trapo politics and selfish oligarchy. Unless stopped the old order will inevitably destroy our institutions. Through our crowdsourcing page in Bayanko, majority desires a change in our political system from the presidential system to a parliamentary federal system.

A parliamentary system would eliminate too expensive elections that have been at the root of corrupt politics and why we can never get good, qualified men and women into leadership posts in government. Adopting the federal system will tackle how to harmonize relations between Muslim Mindanao and national government through a Constitution.

Just as important are the identification of the executive committee and the panel that will draft the new Constitution. Some movements have proposed national transformation without identifying who will compose it and worse those identified so far do not meet the standards acceptable to a movement for reform and transparency. Tomorrow’s column will include the recommendees for both councils and their qualifications. Bayanko is on schedule.