Trigger point

Mamasapano. I didn't even know that the place existed until this week, when news of police commandos being massacred in Mindanao started trickling out.  Now the name is indelible, synonymous with sacrifice and terrorists and 44 brave policemen who lost their lives.

Filipinos are hard to predict sometimes.  They can be apathetic, and then some isolated incident, a random event can happen, triggering an emotional response that is so powerful, it mobilizes millions and yes, even topples governments.

Take the congressional investigation into former president Estrada.  While citizens were gabbing about the shocking findings of champagne guzzling and lavish spending, almost gluing themselves to the telly, they weren't really up in arms about the corruption scandal.  It wasn't until a sneaky defense lawyer tactic that saw key pieces of evidence successfully blocked, leading to a walk out of the prosecution, that galvanized the citizenry into action.

Never mind that the evidence wasn't even in display yet, as they had been barred from being presented.  Who cares about what those evidence really proved.  It was seeing the furious reaction of prosecutors, the victory-dance thingamajig of Senator Aquino-Oreta, and the ultimate walk out that struck a chord in Filipinos and led them to pour out the streets.  With it came the downfall of president Estrada.

The same could be said of president Marcos' fall from power.  I mean, he had just seen decades of extra-judicial killings go by without serious challenge.  Student leaders had disappeared, political rivals had gone into hiding, oppositionists had seen their businesses and families sent into oblivion.  Many were afraid.  Too afraid to do anything.  Murmurs were heard here and there, but nothing overt.

I remember when my parents would frighten us with the bogey of the night curfew, and what was remarkable that mass uprisings weren't evident.   I would have marched in my pajamas with teddy bear in tow for being forced to go to bed that early.  Pretty much like the rest of the country, our querulous complaints were shushed by nervous parents.

But the sight of Ninoy Aquino's lifeless body on the tarmac, videos of his final moments on the plane ride home, overheard screams and a couple of shots?  That really woke the torpid Filipinos up.  Suddenly, defiance was in the air.  People were emboldened.  And the rest is literally history.

I thought I saw  this emotional detonator go off when the pork barrel scandals came out in the press, and a million people march began to be planned.  But that fizzled out quickly, perhaps because indignant citizens saw that there were forces within the government that heard them, and were trying to address their demands.

That's perhaps the moment where we are now, that same fulcrum.  As images came of caskets of the fallen cops being unloaded from the plane, cloaked in flags, and then surrounded by weeping comrades.  I sense that dangerous frisson, that same sense of tension building up, when heads go up, mouths begin to curl, and anger and frustration spill out from heedless lips.

The questions fly out, what happened here?  What caused this?  Who is to blame?  Is it due to the bungling of an official, a minor functionary, a general, or even the Commander in Chief himself?  Many theories are propounded.  Is it due to the US government's pulling of puppet strings, as Congressman Colmenares propounds?  Is it due to the rebels and separatists in Mindanao, who cannot and must not be trusted? Is it due to a stupid internal struggle for power in the Cabinet, and injured pride and fragile egos?

It's a dangerous moment for President Aquino, as former voters openly denounce him, policemen hold their own marches, and whispers of coups begin to circulate.  He has to calibrate his response carefully, even as his own initial reactions to the massacre have already been quickly regarded by the press and netizens as enormous mistakes.

Not showing up to welcome his men home, not showing emotion or empathy in his televised addresses, quickly deflecting blame, all these were pounced upon by an incensed nation. The level of rhetoric is up, the vitriol is clear.  All eyes are on the president.  What will he do next?

Perhaps, the fact that he spent 12 hours on Friday with the grieving families will assuage public anger and mollify detractors.  Perhaps the fact that he has finally, finally vowed justice against the rebels that killed the cops, will be enough.  But the president's task is not yet done.  The next few days are crucial.  Will he be able to see his way home?  Or will he unwittingly, despite the best efforts of his advisers, pull the trigger?