EDITORIAL - Forecasting as good as it gets

A new problem has emerged pertaining to preparations during weather disturbances. With technology providing greater accessibility to information, people now have a wide variety of sources to choose from. This became very apparent when people kept track of typhoon Ruby from at least four foreign and local sources. With each source providing a slightly different forecast from the others, ordinary folk had a hard time making sense of the varying data they obtained.

To professional meteorologists and to a select few who, for whatever reason, managed to obtain a fair grasp of the information available, the differences in data did not present any digressions significant enough as to actually change the whole picture. As far as Ruby was concerned, for instance, all available sources were clear about its relative strength and progress, as well as the general direction it was heading.

And where some significant digression occurs, there is always provided some theory or explanation that allows it to stick to what the data is all about, which is a forecast. And this is the main thing that most ordinary people do not understand -- that what all the different meteorological agencies are dishing out are forecasts, not accurate and unassailable declarations.

And the reason they are called forecasts is because nobody has managed to tame the natural forces that make up the weather. Meteorology is still not a perfect science. The means have been found to determine the strength and speed of typhoons with relative accuracy, but a way has still not been found to accurately determine how weather systems interact with each other in order to exactly tell the direction of typhoons.

All that weather scientists can rely on with regard to direction are models derived from a recording of all the tracks taken by previous typhoons and find one that matches a current one and its characteristics. From there, it is all analysis and theory. And that is why there can be no truly unified forecast. The best thing that can happen is that there is a generality that emerges, and it is from this that an area of probability takes shape.

Those who, from the Ruby experience, started criticizing the different meteorological organizations only succeeded in exposing their lack of understanding of the dynamics of weather forecasting. The reality of weather forecasting is that there is no such thing as pinpoint accuracy. It is really all just a system of helpful estimations.

But this system of helpful estimations has proven to be very valuable and useful. It helps tell people in advance of coming storms, how strong such storms can be, when these storms are likely to hit, and roughly where. The physical dimensions of storms being what they are, it is often just enough to get an idea and not have to wait to be told in no uncertain terms because, frankly, there is no such thing. Forecasting is as good as it can get.