P-Noy’s endorsement in 2016

A group of political science consultants from De La Salle University, UP-Diliman  and the University of Sto. Tomas just held a forum to discuss the 2016 presidential election. One topic that was debated was the importance of the endorsement of P-Noy in determining the eventual winner. It was pointed out that the last time a presidential endorsement mattered was when President Corazon Aquino endorsed the eventual winner, then Secretary Fidel Ramos.

I believe a presidential endorsement is a major influence if the sitting president has very high satisfaction ratings and has imbued in the Filipino masses the desire to continue the programs that will benefit their lives. I do not agree that the average Filipino is not interested in issues. It has been proven, in past elections, that in voting for the president, the masses are not dictated by local politicians.

The difference is that those in the higher income bracket and the masses do not agree on which are the critical issues. The A B classes may be interested in GDP growth, budget deficits, trade agreements, and the state of the stock market which are alien to the rest of the people.

For the class C or the lower middle class, the main issues would be jobs, opportunities for higher education, and decent housing. It is this class that provides the bulk of our OFWs which is another big issue for them. For the D E classes, the main issues are the very basic ones which the AB classes take for granted. These issues are social protection, disaster relief, basic education for their children, adequate shelter and nutrition.

In the recent SWS job satisfaction rating, P-Noy’s highest approvals came in three categories: Helping victims of disaster (Very good); Helping the poor (Good); Foreign relations and defending the country’s territorial rights (Good).

It is clear that the efforts of the administration, especially the coordination of activities during times of natural disaster under Executive Secretary  Ochoa and Defense Secretary Gasmin has proven to be highly successful and appreciated by the nation.

The government efforts of relief and rehabilitation in Typhoon Yolanda stricken areas have also earned high satisfaction in spite of the efforts of a strange alliance of the Marcos-Romualdez camp, the so-called “militants” and certain sectors of media to project a negative image for the administration’s efforts. Perhaps this positive rating is also partly due to the testimonies of foreign observers who have consistently praised the relief and reconstruction efforts for Typhoon Yolanda stricken areas as among the fastest and most effective among recent catastrophes like Aceh in Indonesia, Katrina in the United States, and Haiti. Some of these observers include the heads of the World Bank and the international NGO Save the Children.

Political scientists and even politicians seem to underestimate the impact on the life of the poor, or what DLSU Professor Magno calls as the current social protection programs of the P-Noy administration. These programs include the Conditional Cash Transfer programs which is now benefiting five million families. This is a program that could have ended up as a massive source of corruption. But under P-Noy and DSWD Secretary Dinky Soliman, it has turned into a program that is providing relief for  families who have yet to feel the gains of economic growth.

The other program is the PhilHealth which even those in the AB classes are now using. From my perspective, the only obstacle to making this a truly national health program is the lack of health facilities and health care personnel in many provinces especially in rural areas. If the P-Noy administration can address this, this will be another social protection program that will be a legacy of this administration.

A basic education that will equip even high school graduates with enough skills to land a decent job is the third leg of these social protection programs. This is the reason why the K to 12 programs as envisioned by Br Armin Luistro is the real bridge for the very poor to give their children the opportunity to break the cycle of poverty. For too long, families have stayed poor, generation after generation after generation. 

While welfare programs and providing free meals can provide temporary relief, it is only quality basic education that can give a poor family a chance to have their children get decent jobs that will pay a living wage. This economic empowerment of the poor will also lead to a more prosperous economy and make this country the next economic miracle of the world.

The satisfaction rating of P-Noy is one of the highest among all the past post-Marcos presidents. If it remains this high because of his efforts at social protection, education reform, economic growth and institutionalizing the rule of law, his endorsement will be a critical factor. This will be especially true if there will be no strong preference for any of the candidates in the 2016 presidential elections.

Let Alcala go

There are, however, still other issues that must be addressed immediately. One of the major reasons for the relatively low third quarter GDP rate was the contraction in agriculture which DECLINED by 2.7% last quarter, worse than the 0.3 % growth last year due to reduced crop production. The excuse is that this was caused by typhoons Glenda and Luis. This is the same excuse — typhoons — that  Agriculture Secretary Alcala used for failing to achieve rice sufficiency. Perhaps, Alcala is thinking of asking Congress to pass a bill that would outlaw typhoons in the Philippines.

I have already written too many columns citing the reasons why Alcala must go and let Secretary Pangilinan take over. He might not completely succeed, but surely he cannot do worse. Let Alcala go.

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It is the last two Young Writers’ Hangouts for 2014 on Saturday, Dec. 6 and 13, 1 p.m.-2:30 p.m at the Canadian American School Alphaland Makati. For registration contact 0917-6240196 / [email protected]

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Email: [email protected]