The new terrorist threat

When a crack team of US Navy SEALS took out al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden at his hideout in Abbotabad, Pakistan in May 2011, many people wanted to believe that it was the beginning of the end of extremism. The fact is, it did break the back of al-Qaeda from which it is not likely to recover. 

Today however, we have a new and more deadly terrorist threat by the name of ISIS – also known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, Islamic State in Iraq and Syria or simply Islamic State. This barbaric group just beheaded a second American journalist, Steven Sotloff (two weeks after the execution of James Foley), with the extremist group warning that it will continue the executions unless the United States stopped military airstrikes against ISIS strongholds in northern Iraq and across the Syrian border.

Enraged, US vice president Joe Biden vowed that America will follow ISIS “to the gates of hell,” declaring that when people harm Americans, “we don’t retreat. We don’t forget.” US president Barack Obama on the other hand issued a rather tepid statement saying he will “degrade and destroy” the Islamic state until things get to a point where the problem shrinks to “manageable” proportions. Such conflicting messages are causing frustration and confusion not only among front liners deployed in Iraq and Syria but even in Capitol Hill. (Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario will be visiting Washington D.C. at the end of this month with an eminent group of businessmen to get the sentiment at the Capitol after meeting with several US Senators and Congressmen.)

A number of intelligence analysts and Middle East experts however say that such statements from Obama and Biden reveal the kind of ignorance that could prove costly to the United States. As US Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Martin Dempsey noted, ISIS is an organization with an “apocalyptic end-of-days strategic vision,” and no less than a full-scale war employing all tools the US has in its arsenal – diplomatic, economic, intelligence, military – would be needed to destroy the “Jihadistan” menace.

Many agree that ISIS is more dangerous than al-Qaeda especially because it is attracting many young, modern day jihadists from across Europe and the Asia Pacific region, with followers all over the globe numbering to 12,000 and coming from 74 different nationalities including British, American, Australian as well as Bosnian and Chechnyan who bring with them their combat experience. A lot of the recruits have a deep-seated hatred for the US, resenting what they consider as American meddling in the affairs of the Arab world.

The seeds of the Islamic State were sown when the US invaded Iraq, drove out Saddam Hussein and helped the Iraqis establish “democracy” with a government dominated by Shiites. Shortly before the invasion of Iraq, I wrote an article titled “When Bush comes to shove,” arguing that it was important for the US to attack Iraq and oust a dictator like Saddam. The late Teddy Benigno, then our senior STAR columnist, countered in his column that this move will only get the US into deeper trouble and that it will have a more difficult time disengaging from Iraq than it did in Vietnam. Teddy was right.  

Democracy is a nice word but in reality a democratic system does not fit the cultural mold in the Arab world where families and clans come first, with loyalty belonging to tribes and religious sects – not to the state. This “multiplicity” of sects and tribal factionalism are the reasons why strong-arm tactics like those employed by Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi are the only way to govern.

When the US troops pulled out of Iraq, the Shiites – who then controlled the government – began oppressing the Sunnis, many of whom served in the army of Saddam Hussein. The enmity between these two Muslim sects fed the resentment of the followers of Saddam Hussein, pushing these former military men to embrace extremism because it was also the only way to get employment and feed their children. The result:  ISIS today.

Asian analysts however are concerned that the attention on ISIS is distracting the United States from other issues like the growing aggression of China in the economic, political and military front. The Philippines has every reason to be concerned because the US focus on its pivot to Asia policy may get fuzzy – which could embolden China even more with regard to the territorial disputes in the Spratlys. Add to that the situation in Ukraine and the Crimea exacerbated by the “Hitlerian” tendencies of Russian president Vladimir Putin who has been tagged as the “real enemy” during the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit.

Clearly, the United States will ask its allies like the Philippines to be vigilant against the new terrorist group and it’s obvious that the developments on numerous fronts are going to make it difficult for the US to maintain its role as the world’s super policeman. Some intelligence quarters in the beginning said that we may be overestimating the ISIS problem which they have characterized as more of a sectarian conflict between the Sunni and the Shiite. Today however, this group has become extremely dangerous with more resources and more recruits.

We should learn from recent history when Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda gang were dismissed as merely a threat outside the United States until 9/11 happened. No question the ISIS terrorist group is a major threat to all peace loving nations. I see George Bush’s line, “either you’re with us or against us,” being very much applicable today.

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