The re-emerging Cold War

History seems to be repeating itself with Russia and China fostering closer relations after years of hiatus. Just two weeks ago, these two nations engaged in a week-long naval exercise at the East China Sea and inked a mammoth $456 billion natural gas deal — moves that intelligence experts say are indicative of a looming “cold war” with the end in view of countering the stature and influence of the perceived lone super power — the United States.

 Both Russia and China are displaying growing aggression as seen by the crisis in Ukraine that started with Russia’s annexation of Crimea, while on the other hand China is embroiled in maritime territorial disputes in the Asian region particularly with Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines. 

Obviously, the European Union is concerned with Russia moving in a direction that is clearly destabilizing. Intelligence reports confirm that the former Soviet Union has a stockpile of about 8,500 nuclear warheads (about a thousand more than the United States) and that it has been exponentially increasing its defense budget in recent years. At the recent G7 meeting in Brussels, Europe’s leaders warned Moscow that more economic sanctions would be imposed if Russia — which was expelled from the Group of Eight after its annexation of Crimea — continues to violate Ukraine’s sovereignty. 

During the Brussels meeting, Obama called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to “get back into a lane of international law” — by recognizing Ukraine’s new president-elect Petro Poroshenko, ceasing the supply of arms over the border and withdrawing support from pro-Russian separatists. There was no mistaking the stern warning from the global leaders of Europe and the US when they reminded Russia that its sluggish economy has become even weaker because of Putin’s unwise choices — to the detriment of the Russian people — and that more painful consequences could follow “should events so require.”

Meantime, China’s increasingly antagonistic behavior in disputed areas in the South China Sea has not also escaped the notice of many. In an analysis by Professor Sonika Gupta published by the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, she says China has achieved the kind of impact on global politics that the US had after the Second World War, and that its decisions will have significant bearing on other countries. While China is bent on projecting itself as a responsible global power, there is “growing popular support for using military force for resolution of territorial disputes” because of the underlying desire to display what Gupta described as “big country mentality” and therefore claim what China feels belongs to it by right. When China was just beginning to grow its economy, many nations welcomed and cheered it. Today however, “China’s neighborhood has become very hostile and it doesn’t have the same support that it used (to have) to push its program for economic growth,” Professor Gupta observed.

 Certainly, China’s stubborn refusal to engage in multilateral resolution of maritime disputes and its insistence on bilateral negotiations even while it shows escalating belligerence, ramming vessels and building rigs in contested areas is undermining peace and security in the Asia Pacific region.  Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s remarks during the recent ASEAN Summit held in Myanmar puts it all very succinctly: “There are many questions on whether the rise of China will last peacefully or, on the contrary, if China’s rise will create political and security problems for the region or even the world.”

Some experts posit that the “new Cold War” has more to do with economic and political interests and less on military muscle which was the hallmark of the “old” Cold War during the ’80s. No question economics is a key factor especially with regard to disputed territories in the South China Sea. Currently, trade between the US and Southeast Asian nations is more than $200 billion, so naturally, part of America’s agenda is to protect not only its economic interests but those of its allies as well – making freedom of navigation very crucial.

There are, however, some who downplay the growing concern at the emboldened posturing of both Russia and China, saying that a new Cold War is not about to happen soon since the new “BFFs” just want to pull the tail of the United States to, one, make other nations recognize their growing influence and two, show their resentment at the continued recognition of the US as the top global superpower.

The economic interdependence between the US, China and yes, Russia as well will make military conflict unlikely especially because there is now less reliance on military power as a solution to geopolitical problems – or so goes the placatory analysis. Ironically, these same analysts also admit that the military option is nevertheless essential as a tool in ensuring global security and protection, and to keep rogue nations in check through armed response if warranted.   

Despite the increasing tension with China, the Philippines is fortunate in the sense that more nations are beginning to be more concerned, and that we are no longer alone in expressing indignation on the increasingly assertive stance of China over the Spratlys. Everyday, we hear more disturbing news like Chinese spraying vessels with water cannons, ramming boats, putting up an oil rig, sneakily doing reclamation work in disputed areas. Although the Philippines has elevated its protest before a UN international tribunal, the truth is we have very little choice but to strengthen our alliance with the United States through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. Meanwhile, the country’s “nationalists” have once again taken the issue to the Supreme Court, delaying the full implementation of our agreement. Sadly, those who are against EDCA offer no alternative.

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